{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d40670bf-3d51-4086-b90f-31f3965df59b", "symbol": "UCOBANK", "name": "UCO Bank", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.91, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.324, "architecture_energy": 14.559, "architecture_maturity": 25.77, "architecture_confidence": 71.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.86, "rotation_up": 10.47, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 69.24, "rotation_down": 46.51, "downward_expansion": 53.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.212, 26.412727, 26.187721, 26.135058 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.4, "trend_reference": 26.432065, "distance_from_trend": -0.001213, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.366821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.293491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.081101, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059536, "excess_performance": -0.015827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.293491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059536, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.749288, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16087892, "relative_activity": 0.719995, "balance": 0.749288, "dry_up": 1.169617, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040355, "annualized_volatility": 0.270914, "from_high_reference": -0.21518, "from_low_reference": 0.207958 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.432065, "fair_value_reference": 37.366821, "structural_low": 21.855056, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01145, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.014603, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.300429, "worst_return": -0.069851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.079304, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.033366, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.317391, "worst_return": -0.167709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068913, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047599, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.447826, "worst_return": -0.247518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.22532, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.203205, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.11677, "worst_return": -0.410771, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038943, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.355089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07558, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020093, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 30.12944, "volume": 124113585, "typical_volume": 67303638.25, "trend": 26.316584, "fair_value": 15.845626, "relative_strength": 23.387332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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26.389454, 26.08256, 26.169827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.18, "volume": 39776807, "typical_volume": 23381110.8, "trend": 26.495643, "fair_value": 37.377418, "relative_strength": -4.242711, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.453729, "energy": 15.900296, "activity_lines": [ 26.197333, 26.394182, 26.127702, 26.141229 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.4, "volume": 16087892, "typical_volume": 22344464.4, "trend": 26.432065, "fair_value": 37.366821, "relative_strength": -4.081101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.323963, "energy": 14.559421, "activity_lines": [ 26.212, 26.412727, 26.187721, 26.135058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }