{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d40e8d7d-7987-4c5f-87df-92b51c7d90e1", "symbol": "RSL2", "name": "R. STAHL AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.42, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.083, "architecture_energy": 11.859, "architecture_maturity": 36.963, "architecture_confidence": 53.093, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.14, "rotation_up": 29.4, "upward_expansion": 36.01, "deceleration": 63.96, "rotation_down": 32.85, "downward_expansion": 20.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.76, 13.849091, 13.595714, 13.532043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.9, "trend_reference": 13.61, "distance_from_trend": 0.021308, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.934615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224962, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.967635, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054422, "excess_performance": -0.119061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021308, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224962, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083681, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119676, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079257, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.563607, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2278, "relative_activity": 0.835013, "balance": 2.563607, "dry_up": 0.851233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035418, "annualized_volatility": 0.219741, "from_high_reference": -0.223464, "from_low_reference": 0.158333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.61, "fair_value_reference": 17.934615, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.170194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.128126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.349398, "worst_return": -0.009009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.141539, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.124338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26506, "worst_return": 0.018018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.433735, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.393617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.433735, "worst_return": 0.433735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.301205, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.084005, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.301205, "worst_return": 0.301205, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144144, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.118182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.134146, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 4775, "typical_volume": 4851.1, "trend": 20.363333, "fair_value": 19.278205, "relative_strength": 20.339873, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"fair_value": 18.146795, "relative_strength": -8.817224, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.929733, "energy": 60.093883, "activity_lines": [ 14.08, 13.729091, 13.467619, 13.527957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.8, "volume": 762, "typical_volume": 2741.55, "trend": 13.73, "fair_value": 18.091667, "relative_strength": -9.244666, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.995114, "energy": 50.495841, "activity_lines": [ 14.013333, 13.801818, 13.510476, 13.530323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.6, "volume": 1340, "typical_volume": 2643.7, "trend": 13.69, "fair_value": 18.036538, "relative_strength": -10.800484, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.484025, "energy": 25.635607, "activity_lines": [ 13.86, 13.821818, 13.531905, 13.521935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.6, "volume": 4909, "typical_volume": 2685.4, "trend": 13.653333, "fair_value": 17.982692, "relative_strength": -12.019443, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.945224, "energy": 11.87848, "activity_lines": [ 13.74, 13.818182, 13.550476, 13.516129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.9, "volume": 2278, "typical_volume": 2728.1, "trend": 13.61, "fair_value": 17.934615, "relative_strength": -11.967635, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.08296, "energy": 11.859174, "activity_lines": [ 13.76, 13.849091, 13.595714, 13.532043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }