{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d4126e95-1b1c-4567-bedb-2021cbc13dc3",
    "symbol": "IESC",
    "name": "IES Holdings Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 92.925,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 62.089,
    "architecture_energy": 34.423,
    "architecture_maturity": 43.131,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.999,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.14,
        "rotation_up": 43.66,
        "upward_expansion": 72.04,
        "deceleration": 70.94,
        "rotation_down": 22.23,
        "downward_expansion": 3.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        701.433333,
        688.51,
        676.526071,
        637.250828
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 762.71,
    "trend_reference": 583.1365,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.307944,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 280.160256,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.722406,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 35.412645,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.67305,
    "excess_performance": 0.485596,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.307944,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.196359,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.722406,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.208341,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.354126,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03553,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.67305,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.453341,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 855790,
      "relative_activity": 0.745227,
      "balance": 1.453341,
      "dry_up": 0.946172,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.136039,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.485283,
      "from_high_reference": -0.060528,
      "from_low_reference": 1.46425
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 583.1365,
      "fair_value_reference": 280.160256,
      "structural_low": 395.06,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.105961,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053111,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.353981,
        "worst_return": -0.321657,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.130416,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.083733,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.390864,
        "worst_return": -0.208294,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.555434,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.390251,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.958902,
        "worst_return": 0.158632,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.915162,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.715265,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.905216,
        "worst_return": 0.852769,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-05-12",
        "end": "2023-09-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.405077,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004347,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.635216,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.171986,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.295653,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.152907,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009391,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.48356,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.100879,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.192828,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.211416,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.099362,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.525261,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.244185,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      {
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 613.02,
        "volume": 1378110,
        "typical_volume": 1154742.3,
        "trend": 552.026167,
        "fair_value": 267.721154,
        "relative_strength": 16.564873,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.67164,
        "energy": 21.499484,
        "activity_lines": [
          644.763333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 626.07,
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        "typical_volume": 1129899.9,
        "trend": 559.455833,
        "fair_value": 271.375641,
        "relative_strength": 20.118797,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.286432,
        "energy": 22.467401,
        "activity_lines": [
          632.13,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 744.54,
        "volume": 1340528,
        "typical_volume": 1149779.45,
        "trend": 570.710167,
        "fair_value": 275.721282,
        "relative_strength": 40.48186,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.376858,
        "energy": 22.301037,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 762.71,
        "volume": 855790,
        "typical_volume": 1148360.95,
        "trend": 583.1365,
        "fair_value": 280.160256,
        "relative_strength": 35.412645,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.088934,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}