{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d412bff1-fb50-48d8-98f9-739a4a037526", "symbol": "601881", "name": "China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.367, "architecture_energy": 19.422, "architecture_maturity": 93.88, "architecture_confidence": 72.978, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.26, "rotation_up": 25.42, "upward_expansion": 14.86, "deceleration": 42.65, "rotation_down": 34.0, "downward_expansion": 60.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.529092, 12.534358, 12.492447, 12.761006 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.41, "trend_reference": 13.32818, "distance_from_trend": -0.06889, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.660938, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09157, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.252221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.173768, "excess_performance": -0.130564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086978, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039626, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101808, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.424876, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151144235, "relative_activity": 0.844871, "balance": 0.424876, "dry_up": 1.067563, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058206, "annualized_volatility": 0.212766, "from_high_reference": -0.351181, "from_low_reference": 0.060305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.32818, "fair_value_reference": 13.660938, "structural_low": 11.704182, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.013996, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.011266, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.256963, "worst_return": -0.13561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007779, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015315, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.481818, "worst_return": -0.219375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.035673, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002674, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.32803, "worst_return": -0.174516, "sufficient": false }, { 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13.665847, "fair_value": 13.634191, "relative_strength": -12.775529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.787773, "energy": 20.85926, "activity_lines": [ 12.675256, 12.482289, 12.552429, 12.965213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.45, "volume": 222462371, "typical_volume": 179680467.35, "trend": 13.550847, "fair_value": 13.644274, "relative_strength": -14.614624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.919324, "energy": 20.425846, "activity_lines": [ 12.644609, 12.494554, 12.520165, 12.886772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.63, "volume": 144804106, "typical_volume": 179954222.95, "trend": 13.438514, "fair_value": 13.652869, "relative_strength": -13.074891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.454688, "energy": 11.791481, "activity_lines": [ 12.636034, 12.539001, 12.513425, 12.827362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.41, "volume": 151144235, "typical_volume": 178896249.65, "trend": 13.32818, "fair_value": 13.660938, "relative_strength": -16.252221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.367107, "energy": 19.422332, "activity_lines": [ 12.529092, 12.534358, 12.492447, 12.761006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }