{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d420557a-d53f-4953-b760-c56411487f0b", "symbol": "VEGI", "name": "VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.505, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.723, "architecture_energy": 33.189, "architecture_maturity": 67.979, "architecture_confidence": 37.799, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.95, "rotation_up": 40.16, "upward_expansion": 65.97, "deceleration": 65.42, "rotation_down": 25.23, "downward_expansion": 15.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.9758, 19.992727, 19.720971, 19.521531 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.014999, "trend_reference": 19.3157, "distance_from_trend": 0.036204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.417353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030779, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.595419, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.03823, "excess_performance": -0.132662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030779, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030018, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03823, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1152, "relative_activity": 1.191745, "balance": 0.575136, "dry_up": 1.899602, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02349, "annualized_volatility": 0.117712, "from_high_reference": -0.050071, "from_low_reference": 0.123176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.3157, "fair_value_reference": 19.417353, "structural_low": 18.298, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012406, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.003597, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.048126, "worst_return": -0.072151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073725, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.061529, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.098912, "worst_return": -0.091549, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.075444, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005153, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.152581, "worst_return": -0.001693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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19.251552, 19.162194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.440001, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 775.9, "trend": 19.088733, "fair_value": 19.328962, "relative_strength": -10.766832, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.664666, "energy": 92.226414, "activity_lines": [ 19.9672, 19.692218, 19.374543, 19.252964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.219999, "volume": 679, "typical_volume": 778.75, "trend": 19.144533, "fair_value": 19.348333, "relative_strength": -10.868781, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.464386, "energy": 86.035595, "activity_lines": [ 20.1148, 19.818472, 19.471238, 19.325948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.17, "volume": 3980, "typical_volume": 883.4, "trend": 19.1936, "fair_value": 19.367615, "relative_strength": -9.32631, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.903868, "energy": 82.433785, "activity_lines": [ 20.175066, 19.919454, 19.558047, 19.392108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.742001, "volume": 721, "typical_volume": 914.8, "trend": 19.2284, "fair_value": 19.384154, "relative_strength": -10.584581, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.900864, "energy": 53.827916, "activity_lines": [ 20.066, 19.924945, 19.59979, 19.427488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.944, "volume": 1492, "typical_volume": 959.45, "trend": 19.272933, "fair_value": 19.399808, "relative_strength": -9.789663, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.067115, "energy": 44.134317, "activity_lines": [ 20.0052, 19.957855, 19.659133, 19.473656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.014999, "volume": 1152, "typical_volume": 966.65, "trend": 19.3157, "fair_value": 19.417353, "relative_strength": -11.595419, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.723321, "energy": 33.188859, "activity_lines": [ 19.9758, 19.992727, 19.720971, 19.521531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }