{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4299fc4-aea7-428c-9070-86237fdd1dfb", "symbol": "002096", "name": "Explosive Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.043, "architecture_energy": 38.183, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.294, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.51, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 18.22, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 36.41, "downward_expansion": 65.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.277179, 9.167005, 9.733966, 10.481119 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.54, "trend_reference": 11.501592, "distance_from_trend": -0.17055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.681544, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183327, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.248792, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.324363, "excess_performance": -0.331762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106048, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183327, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1348, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041966, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.046588, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40687350, "relative_activity": 1.17502, "balance": 1.046588, "dry_up": 1.151402, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097366, "annualized_volatility": 0.546416, "from_high_reference": -0.348361, "from_low_reference": 0.147478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.501592, "fair_value_reference": 11.681544, "structural_low": 8.313884, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.0159, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007012, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.252005, "worst_return": -0.168572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005322, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022682, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.218202, "worst_return": -0.221407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.162117, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.093422, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.344073, "worst_return": -0.188688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -29.493982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.574224, "energy": 62.581493, "activity_lines": [ 8.816801, 9.139469, 9.935754, 10.756228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.58, "volume": 38761896, "typical_volume": 34624747.3, "trend": 11.627592, "fair_value": 11.692214, "relative_strength": -22.925891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.672797, "energy": 52.474587, "activity_lines": [ 9.080951, 9.14951, 9.826051, 10.615803 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.54, "volume": 40687350, "typical_volume": 34626943.3, "trend": 11.501592, "fair_value": 11.681544, "relative_strength": -26.248792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.042701, "energy": 38.182593, "activity_lines": [ 9.277179, 9.167005, 9.733966, 10.481119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }