{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d42ccc11-eb23-49c2-989e-43e6a0f9cae9", "symbol": "TIGR", "name": "Up Fintech Holding Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.079, "architecture_energy": 38.013, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.448, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.49, "rotation_up": 27.45, "upward_expansion": 17.76, "deceleration": 46.34, "rotation_down": 39.4, "downward_expansion": 67.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.779667, 4.724182, 5.034381, 5.517462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.815, "trend_reference": 6.2885, "distance_from_trend": -0.234317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.514647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.260896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.048745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.408477, "excess_performance": -0.59593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.234317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.260896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274342, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.480487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.408477, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8384926, "relative_activity": 0.474075, "balance": 0.486175, "dry_up": 0.492509, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123825, "annualized_volatility": 0.644896, "from_high_reference": -0.644649, "from_low_reference": 0.20375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.2885, "fair_value_reference": 6.514647, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.034412, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.012498, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.292566, "worst_return": -0.379079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.139633, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.192554, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.802817, "worst_return": -0.604988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.089687, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.093687, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.537538, "worst_return": -0.758121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.090206, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.206637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.200993, "worst_return": -0.787703, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064067, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.497982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.360915, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.161931, "energy": 57.636593, "activity_lines": [ 4.621333, 4.679818, 5.277286, 5.867462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.73, "volume": 10982506, "typical_volume": 18215186.0, "trend": 6.636667, "fair_value": 6.501346, "relative_strength": -47.699104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.331959, "energy": 53.400218, "activity_lines": [ 4.651333, 4.665091, 5.176571, 5.735118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9, "volume": 8719301, "typical_volume": 18179852.05, "trend": 6.452, "fair_value": 6.50641, "relative_strength": -45.327051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.403052, "energy": 42.950684, "activity_lines": [ 4.736667, 4.707273, 5.10381, 5.623075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.815, "volume": 8384926, "typical_volume": 17686912.5, "trend": 6.2885, "fair_value": 6.514647, "relative_strength": -48.048745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.079224, "energy": 38.013452, "activity_lines": [ 4.779667, 4.724182, 5.034381, 5.517462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }