{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4311c08-2768-4a44-8dc0-970cb2c3d0c0", "symbol": "BUFF", "name": "Innovator Laddered Allocation Power Buffer ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.661, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.245, "architecture_energy": 67.149, "architecture_maturity": 45.126, "architecture_confidence": 77.964, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 64.72, "upward_expansion": 86.61, "deceleration": 58.01, "rotation_down": 24.38, "downward_expansion": 10.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.079333, 52.866364, 52.523881, 51.986527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 53.57, "trend_reference": 51.346333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.283547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18299, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.220547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064269, "excess_performance": -0.061355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043307, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.18299, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000818, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0001, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064269, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.320538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 482521, "relative_activity": 1.379317, "balance": 2.320538, "dry_up": 1.493446, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01017, "annualized_volatility": 0.057146, "from_high_reference": -0.002792, "from_low_reference": 0.138818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.346333, "fair_value_reference": 45.283547, "structural_low": 48.57, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.007747, "positive_rate": 0.673913, "directional_follow_through": 0.673913, "median_excess_return": -0.007428, "regime_survival": 0.847826, "best_return": 0.033721, "worst_return": -0.029122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024362, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.015809, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.061355, "worst_return": -0.014009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.052811, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.040487, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.077735, "worst_return": -0.061716, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 44.906786, "relative_strength": -4.538044, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.291775, "energy": 76.544089, "activity_lines": [ 52.649333, 52.522455, 51.976262, 51.498247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.74, "volume": 335853, "typical_volume": 339573.7, "trend": 51.048333, "fair_value": 44.998901, "relative_strength": -3.361685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.494819, "energy": 72.738519, "activity_lines": [ 52.710667, 52.579636, 52.109, 51.61371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.65, "volume": 701457, "typical_volume": 353666.2, "trend": 51.136667, "fair_value": 45.089222, "relative_strength": -2.843408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.778095, "energy": 66.0257, "activity_lines": [ 52.713333, 52.609273, 52.221833, 51.717043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.98, "volume": 569954, "typical_volume": 358231.05, "trend": 51.236333, "fair_value": 45.184606, "relative_strength": -3.142554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.818356, "energy": 62.177613, "activity_lines": [ 52.822, 52.689818, 52.352857, 51.835968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.57, "volume": 482521, "typical_volume": 349825.95, "trend": 51.346333, "fair_value": 45.283547, "relative_strength": -5.220547, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.245349, "energy": 67.149355, "activity_lines": [ 53.079333, 52.866364, 52.523881, 51.986527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }