{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4342066-338a-4a68-899f-f35f03bd7a31", "symbol": "PGCO34", "name": "The Procter & Gamble Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.852, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.022, "architecture_energy": 21.02, "architecture_maturity": 24.59, "architecture_confidence": 62.902, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.14, "rotation_up": 13.66, "upward_expansion": 9.64, "deceleration": 59.4, "rotation_down": 50.73, "downward_expansion": 66.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.055528, 53.665891, 53.322145, 53.665175 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 53.049999, "trend_reference": 54.439341, "distance_from_trend": -0.025521, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 58.986584, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100643, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.810569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.090908, "excess_performance": -0.03386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025521, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100643, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0216, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090908, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.246473, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8692, "relative_activity": 0.846262, "balance": 2.246473, "dry_up": 0.58845, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048182, "annualized_volatility": 0.165071, "from_high_reference": -0.145134, "from_low_reference": 0.067834 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.439341, "fair_value_reference": 58.986584, "structural_low": 49.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.018408, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032934, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.076154, "worst_return": -0.104784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000229, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.105155, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100743, "worst_return": -0.141588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067259, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235653, "worst_return": -0.109046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 15.64265, "activity_lines": [ 54.602463, 53.990055, 53.422729, 54.025692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.179981, "volume": 6319, "typical_volume": 19082.4, "trend": 54.612516, "fair_value": 58.957913, "relative_strength": -9.793064, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.338686, "energy": 10.548048, "activity_lines": [ 54.438643, 54.150466, 53.454501, 53.994021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.18, "volume": 4301, "typical_volume": 18276.7, "trend": 54.517519, "fair_value": 58.976485, "relative_strength": -10.818702, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.099173, "energy": 11.094204, "activity_lines": [ 53.941496, 54.080335, 53.422568, 53.901601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.27, "volume": 4864, "typical_volume": 16570.25, "trend": 54.467079, "fair_value": 58.982085, "relative_strength": -13.538339, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.635664, "energy": 22.402711, "activity_lines": [ 53.285944, 53.809113, 53.323497, 53.7566 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.049999, "volume": 8692, "typical_volume": 10271.05, "trend": 54.439341, "fair_value": 58.986584, "relative_strength": -8.810569, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.021926, "energy": 21.019772, "activity_lines": [ 53.055528, 53.665891, 53.322145, 53.665175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }