{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d43b0a3e-4ba5-4b46-a108-6cac86186f47", "symbol": "FM", "name": "Fiera Milano S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.467, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.238, "architecture_energy": 17.589, "architecture_maturity": 68.789, "architecture_confidence": 80.073, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.53, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 58.23, "deceleration": 85.07, "rotation_down": 30.49, "downward_expansion": 19.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.312667, 8.402727, 8.305444, 8.100838 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.36, "trend_reference": 7.812225, "distance_from_trend": 0.070118, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.95687, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.686548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.161599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.222433, "excess_performance": 0.051541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070118, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.686548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.222433, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.626186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 537885, "relative_activity": 1.252957, "balance": 1.626186, "dry_up": 1.268685, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088241, "annualized_volatility": 0.40693, "from_high_reference": -0.090316, "from_low_reference": 0.32775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.812225, "fair_value_reference": 4.95687, "structural_low": 6.538534, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.014085, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": 0.009748, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.205454, "worst_return": -0.084767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.090448, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.043681, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.520282, "worst_return": -0.074224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.322818, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.19773, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.407441, "worst_return": 0.071253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"relative_strength": -2.363676, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.582385, "energy": 39.226068, "activity_lines": [ 8.578, 8.504545, 8.234159, 8.006182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.9, "volume": 305534, "typical_volume": 404752.65, "trend": 7.746549, "fair_value": 4.875042, "relative_strength": -7.086787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.925615, "energy": 23.865711, "activity_lines": [ 8.353333, 8.400545, 8.228591, 8.017239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.46, "volume": 1160960, "typical_volume": 428318.3, "trend": 7.777663, "fair_value": 4.916133, "relative_strength": -1.260351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.969339, "energy": 18.195006, "activity_lines": [ 8.353333, 8.412909, 8.275409, 8.063268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.36, "volume": 537885, "typical_volume": 429292.3, "trend": 7.812225, "fair_value": 4.95687, "relative_strength": -5.161599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.237686, "energy": 17.589417, "activity_lines": [ 8.312667, 8.402727, 8.305444, 8.100838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }