{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d43e1265-c919-48bd-8f50-5accb3c5c70e", "symbol": "300989", "name": "LAY-OUT Planning Consultants Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.727, "architecture_energy": 53.28, "architecture_maturity": 64.736, "architecture_confidence": 78.55, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 13.73, "upward_expansion": 7.31, "deceleration": 54.84, "rotation_down": 67.3, "downward_expansion": 80.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.873333, 12.221818, 13.132668, 13.694141 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.36, "trend_reference": 14.486019, "distance_from_trend": -0.077731, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.048854, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.423669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.172194, "excess_performance": -0.179594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077731, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172194, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.817479, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69441115, "relative_activity": 3.732003, "balance": 0.817479, "dry_up": 1.81996, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101725, "annualized_volatility": 0.445564, "from_high_reference": -0.305863, "from_low_reference": 0.390219 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.486019, "fair_value_reference": 16.048854, "structural_low": 9.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.048143, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.000876, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.311352, "worst_return": -0.399198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.114409, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.130906, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.443363, "worst_return": -0.183252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.027486, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09766, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221723, "worst_return": -0.276696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11.3, "volume": 12598475, "typical_volume": 15545781.4, "trend": 15.072167, "fair_value": 16.22814, "relative_strength": -30.436927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.246953, "energy": 87.668192, "activity_lines": [ 12.382667, 13.059988, 13.82084, 14.320098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.77, "volume": 18912524, "typical_volume": 15351671.05, "trend": 14.831551, "fair_value": 16.165835, "relative_strength": -39.315495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.82938, "energy": 95.57092, "activity_lines": [ 11.404, 12.359634, 13.391943, 13.978023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.7, "volume": 34503380, "typical_volume": 16247873.7, "trend": 14.62862, "fair_value": 16.11603, "relative_strength": -25.473505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.150701, "energy": 83.17246, "activity_lines": [ 11.315333, 12.110545, 13.174902, 13.775988 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.36, "volume": 69441115, "typical_volume": 18606929.45, "trend": 14.486019, "fair_value": 16.048854, "relative_strength": -18.423669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.726863, "energy": 53.280296, "activity_lines": [ 11.873333, 12.221818, 13.132668, 13.694141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }