{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d443e500-e399-402d-9109-0f1eda3e397f", "symbol": "XZMU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.928, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.649, "architecture_energy": 64.595, "architecture_maturity": 69.736, "architecture_confidence": 64.674, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.36, "rotation_up": 53.05, "upward_expansion": 81.88, "deceleration": 70.51, "rotation_down": 28.66, "downward_expansion": 10.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.785333, 70.448, 69.504762, 67.972344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 72.949997, "trend_reference": 66.325334, "distance_from_trend": 0.099881, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.241859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274417, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.301587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149543, "excess_performance": -0.021349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099881, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031675, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274417, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.422393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21073, "relative_activity": 0.483826, "balance": 2.422393, "dry_up": 0.986547, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019339, "annualized_volatility": 0.13964, "from_high_reference": -0.003415, "from_low_reference": 0.239803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.325334, "fair_value_reference": 57.241859, "structural_low": 58.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.01826, "positive_rate": 0.628571, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": 0.002986, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.094388, "worst_return": -0.06367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.048174, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.007176, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.141462, "worst_return": -0.199661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082978, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.008268, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.192315, "worst_return": -0.093955, "sufficient": true }, { 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67.286925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.68, "volume": 60829, "typical_volume": 43674.4, "trend": 66.094667, "fair_value": 57.048141, "relative_strength": -4.984066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.114954, "energy": 47.12872, "activity_lines": [ 69.825334, 69.890183, 68.957667, 67.530065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.949997, "volume": 21073, "typical_volume": 43554.95, "trend": 66.325334, "fair_value": 57.241859, "relative_strength": -3.301587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.649492, "energy": 64.594681, "activity_lines": [ 70.785333, 70.448, 69.504762, 67.972344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }