{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4474fa8-a00d-4ffb-ae34-140d69561650", "symbol": "K03", "name": "Khong Guan Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.194, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.544, "architecture_energy": 89.661, "architecture_maturity": 6.598, "architecture_confidence": 84.642, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.98, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 82.24, "downward_expansion": 97.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.851, 0.873455, 0.897619, 0.899269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.85, "trend_reference": 0.901833, "distance_from_trend": -0.057476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.962825, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.117181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.499741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017341, "excess_performance": -0.172176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.117181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017341, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.112676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1600, "relative_activity": 0.707965, "balance": 0.112676, "dry_up": 1.570796, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015385, "annualized_volatility": 0.179728, "from_high_reference": -0.128205, "from_low_reference": 0.030303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.901833, "fair_value_reference": 0.962825, "structural_low": 0.825, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.003876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.323529, "median_excess_return": 0.003067, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.173913, "worst_return": -0.098048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.011364, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.044902, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.136752, "worst_return": -0.130631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.095066, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.033966, "worst_return": -0.123076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.08926, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.203254, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.032967, "worst_return": -0.171171, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.108245, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 2635.0, "trend": 1.222012, "fair_value": 1.363017, "relative_strength": -9.427659, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.497595, "energy": 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"2026-06-19", "close": 0.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2310.0, "trend": 0.909, "fair_value": 0.978194, "relative_strength": -9.107164, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.537322, "energy": 26.102061, "activity_lines": [ 0.923, 0.933364, 0.919119, 0.913667 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1760.0, "trend": 0.909333, "fair_value": 0.976735, "relative_strength": -8.709578, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.587525, "energy": 30.862838, "activity_lines": [ 0.92, 0.931091, 0.920619, 0.914376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.92, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1760.0, "trend": 0.909333, "fair_value": 0.974586, "relative_strength": -9.207427, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.253721, "energy": 27.491528, "activity_lines": [ 0.92, 0.928182, 0.921857, 0.915065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.91, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 1825.0, "trend": 0.91, "fair_value": 0.972372, "relative_strength": -13.456572, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.263976, "energy": 19.455523, "activity_lines": [ 0.916667, 0.923091, 0.921881, 0.915108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.845, "volume": 12600, "typical_volume": 2455.0, "trend": 0.908667, "fair_value": 0.969741, "relative_strength": -19.75874, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.609294, "energy": 62.842074, "activity_lines": [ 0.892333, 0.907182, 0.9155, 0.910914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.845, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2390.0, "trend": 0.906833, "fair_value": 0.967111, "relative_strength": -20.429764, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -62.78346, "energy": 82.320186, "activity_lines": [ 0.873, 0.893455, 0.909214, 0.906806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.845, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2390.0, "trend": 0.905, "fair_value": 0.96448, "relative_strength": -20.481012, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.727592, "energy": 92.850065, "activity_lines": [ 0.858667, 0.881909, 0.903095, 0.902817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.85, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 2260.0, "trend": 0.901833, "fair_value": 0.962825, "relative_strength": -20.499741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.544226, "energy": 89.660723, "activity_lines": [ 0.851, 0.873455, 0.897619, 0.899269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }