{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4494f52-b6f8-4778-9d46-4054dede5470", "symbol": "7707", "name": "CMSC", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.277, "architecture_energy": 82.409, "architecture_maturity": 26.422, "architecture_confidence": 85.616, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.97, "rotation_up": 8.83, "upward_expansion": 19.58, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 81.52, "downward_expansion": 97.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.246042, 113.513741, 128.570359, 131.840654 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 102.0, "trend_reference": 132.514985, "distance_from_trend": -0.230276, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 162.260745, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371382, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.04049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.168504, "excess_performance": -0.609876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100866, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371382, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168504, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186567, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165248, "relative_activity": 0.126056, "balance": 0.186567, "dry_up": 0.234133, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151349, "annualized_volatility": 0.64678, "from_high_reference": -0.498657, "from_low_reference": 0.336914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 132.514985, "fair_value_reference": 162.260745, "structural_low": 93.847942, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.209896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138776, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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"close": 114.5, "volume": 278988, "typical_volume": 1655209.2, "trend": 131.955849, "fair_value": 163.597379, "relative_strength": -23.382402, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.730784, "energy": 55.583488, "activity_lines": [ 121.642469, 129.508084, 139.8418, 137.807356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.5, "volume": 481423, "typical_volume": 1622250.05, "trend": 132.606611, "fair_value": 163.151413, "relative_strength": -29.830623, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.378303, "energy": 65.07015, "activity_lines": [ 114.034166, 123.296501, 136.052921, 135.906979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.5, "volume": 302050, "typical_volume": 1423350.05, "trend": 132.921429, "fair_value": 162.697417, "relative_strength": -32.232899, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.291957, "energy": 71.974878, "activity_lines": [ 107.868512, 117.82241, 132.16724, 133.835585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 102.0, "volume": 165248, "typical_volume": 1310909.05, "trend": 132.514985, "fair_value": 162.260745, "relative_strength": -33.04049, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.277008, "energy": 82.408595, "activity_lines": [ 104.246042, 113.513741, 128.570359, 131.840654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }