{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4501d73-9319-4d56-a98b-7c79ad66f43a", "symbol": "4976", "name": "Calin Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 80.259, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.374, "architecture_energy": 32.064, "architecture_maturity": 26.182, "architecture_confidence": 63.365, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.0, "rotation_up": 51.69, "upward_expansion": 76.1, "deceleration": 61.32, "rotation_down": 21.43, "downward_expansion": 5.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.026666, 36.654545, 35.647857, 34.189785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.0, "trend_reference": 32.628333, "distance_from_trend": 0.164632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.886218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030195, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.779067, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.258278, "excess_performance": -0.087454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151946, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132171, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.258278, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.966238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16421520, "relative_activity": 1.154601, "balance": 1.966238, "dry_up": 2.053973, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146964, "annualized_volatility": 0.651053, "from_high_reference": -0.358108, "from_low_reference": 0.402214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.628333, "fair_value_reference": 36.886218, "structural_low": 27.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004055, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051179, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067273, "worst_return": -0.102857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.05753, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.141528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.658182, "worst_return": -0.108571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.107981, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.186402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16, "worst_return": -0.150411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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32.876882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.85, "volume": 2935194, "typical_volume": 8791827.4, "trend": 31.685, "fair_value": 37.016026, "relative_strength": -33.723907, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.693246, "energy": 16.086079, "activity_lines": [ 34.673333, 35.823636, 33.939524, 32.823226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.299999, "volume": 58689297, "typical_volume": 11618059.7, "trend": 31.943334, "fair_value": 36.975641, "relative_strength": -18.420036, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.537833, "energy": 22.119977, "activity_lines": [ 35.059999, 36.146363, 34.419524, 33.185484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.25, "volume": 27493323, "typical_volume": 12861480.75, "trend": 32.138334, "fair_value": 36.935577, "relative_strength": -22.142656, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.749764, "energy": 20.941916, "activity_lines": [ 35.16, 36.198182, 34.76, 33.463333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 37.799999, "volume": 14247889, "typical_volume": 13476949.95, "trend": 32.401667, "fair_value": 36.907051, "relative_strength": -20.974928, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.691426, "energy": 19.79308, "activity_lines": [ 36.043333, 36.445454, 35.216667, 33.828602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 38.0, "volume": 16421520, "typical_volume": 14222682.6, "trend": 32.628333, "fair_value": 36.886218, "relative_strength": -18.779067, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.373734, "energy": 32.063622, "activity_lines": [ 37.026666, 36.654545, 35.647857, 34.189785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }