{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d451482e-e58c-4245-b316-a4be1625ed7d", "symbol": "9585", "name": "Mulkia Investment Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.569, "architecture_energy": 34.448, "architecture_maturity": 8.519, "architecture_confidence": 60.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.51, "rotation_up": 21.86, "upward_expansion": 28.99, "deceleration": 49.26, "rotation_down": 53.49, "downward_expansion": 37.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.490844, 34.008534, 34.444435, 34.369025 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 31.959999, "trend_reference": 33.873409, "distance_from_trend": -0.056487, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.565076, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.192439, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100447, "excess_performance": -0.068618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056487, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038892, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011924, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111758, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.076237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3666, "relative_activity": 1.063456, "balance": 0.076237, "dry_up": 0.450432, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043426, "annualized_volatility": 0.36077, "from_high_reference": -0.228955, "from_low_reference": 0.271239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.873409, "fair_value_reference": 27.565076, "structural_low": 28.000055, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"typical_volume": 3808.9, "trend": 33.630637, "fair_value": 27.501552, "relative_strength": 11.825411, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.756802, "energy": 53.071834, "activity_lines": [ 35.374223, 34.985455, 34.997276, 34.588975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.0, "volume": 1382, "typical_volume": 3489.6, "trend": 33.738591, "fair_value": 27.533683, "relative_strength": 1.31545, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.547462, "energy": 9.12382, "activity_lines": [ 34.3792, 34.476388, 34.728457, 34.483772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.959999, "volume": 3666, "typical_volume": 3447.25, "trend": 33.873409, "fair_value": 27.565076, "relative_strength": -1.192439, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.569451, "energy": 34.44789, "activity_lines": [ 33.490844, 34.008534, 34.444435, 34.369025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }