{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d454ee4e-7ed4-4917-bdc2-ec49fb81161f", "symbol": "4180", "name": "Fitaihi Holding Group", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.307, "architecture_energy": 34.486, "architecture_maturity": 79.783, "architecture_confidence": 92.052, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.94, "rotation_up": 18.99, "upward_expansion": 3.6, "deceleration": 51.11, "rotation_down": 49.7, "downward_expansion": 74.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.422, 2.441091, 2.467762, 2.50028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.45, "trend_reference": 2.565667, "distance_from_trend": -0.045082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.407674, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.075347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.118705, "excess_performance": -0.086876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057487, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281034, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009213, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053753, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.118705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.796257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16123374, "relative_activity": 2.823911, "balance": 0.796257, "dry_up": 1.523294, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048352, "annualized_volatility": 0.192667, "from_high_reference": -0.282019, "from_low_reference": 0.074561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.565667, "fair_value_reference": 3.407674, "structural_low": 2.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.008224, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.015169, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.167183, "worst_return": -0.164557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.039841, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.06366, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.287277, "worst_return": -0.192405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.175258, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.053579, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.531366, "worst_return": -0.216487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.4, "volume": 5570402, "typical_volume": 4856298.9, "trend": 2.590667, "fair_value": 3.426851, "relative_strength": -12.554829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.691512, "energy": 31.130505, "activity_lines": [ 2.450667, 2.454909, 2.487, 2.522624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.37, "volume": 6908131, "typical_volume": 4960726.95, "trend": 2.575667, "fair_value": 3.416736, "relative_strength": -11.414891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.673118, "energy": 40.280585, "activity_lines": [ 2.422, 2.440364, 2.473333, 2.508387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.45, "volume": 16123374, "typical_volume": 5709589.55, "trend": 2.565667, "fair_value": 3.407674, "relative_strength": -10.075347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.307184, "energy": 34.486249, "activity_lines": [ 2.422, 2.441091, 2.467762, 2.50028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }