{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d45720ae-f1f3-4997-a48e-feba89fe51d0", "symbol": "M01", "name": "Metro Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.893, "architecture_energy": 65.573, "architecture_maturity": 45.198, "architecture_confidence": 87.853, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.6, "rotation_up": 16.01, "upward_expansion": 12.3, "deceleration": 44.49, "rotation_down": 72.5, "downward_expansion": 90.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.441419, 0.446478, 0.457673, 0.467272 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.44, "trend_reference": 0.4835, "distance_from_trend": -0.089969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.456379, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.353418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17757, "excess_performance": -0.332405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092639, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253534, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17757, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.31631, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1293600, "relative_activity": 4.162899, "balance": 0.31631, "dry_up": 2.185393, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034401, "annualized_volatility": 0.161476, "from_high_reference": -0.260504, "from_low_reference": 0.08642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.4835, "fair_value_reference": 0.456379, "structural_low": 0.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.007906, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.013325, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.128204, "worst_return": -0.074073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009901, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.038365, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.222221, "worst_return": -0.09009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.042835, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052509, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134921, "worst_return": -0.090226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.492145, "fair_value": 0.459279, "relative_strength": -20.931211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.026127, "energy": 64.998514, "activity_lines": [ 0.455799, 0.460523, 0.469678, 0.479894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.43543, "volume": 233400, "typical_volume": 283165.0, "trend": 0.489993, "fair_value": 0.458507, "relative_strength": -24.519287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.586942, "energy": 73.587778, "activity_lines": [ 0.448652, 0.454886, 0.465746, 0.476235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.445, "volume": 515300, "typical_volume": 265165.0, "trend": 0.48816, "fair_value": 0.457867, "relative_strength": -23.621098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.686508, "energy": 71.463789, "activity_lines": [ 0.446333, 0.45198, 0.463128, 0.473333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.440215, "volume": 674100, "typical_volume": 264205.0, "trend": 0.486, "fair_value": 0.45705, "relative_strength": -24.711351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.014235, "energy": 68.991493, "activity_lines": [ 0.443086, 0.448933, 0.460316, 0.470239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.44, "volume": 1293600, "typical_volume": 310745.0, "trend": 0.4835, "fair_value": 0.456379, "relative_strength": -25.353418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.893294, "energy": 65.573139, "activity_lines": [ 0.441419, 0.446478, 0.457673, 0.467272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }