{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d45b4e6a-ec8e-435d-a687-3f7000ecc9ca", "symbol": "DUOL", "name": "Duolingo, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.289, "architecture_energy": 41.745, "architecture_maturity": 36.649, "architecture_confidence": 47.716, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.14, "rotation_up": 49.69, "upward_expansion": 75.4, "deceleration": 66.29, "rotation_down": 23.28, "downward_expansion": 11.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 2220.268001, 2212.110365, 2098.257953, 2026.03499 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2152.0, "trend_reference": 2012.100334, "distance_from_trend": 0.069529, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4027.652648, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.465694, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.472783, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06746, "excess_performance": 0.122127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069529, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.465694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067609, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.305896, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.147801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3201, "relative_activity": 1.391709, "balance": 0.147801, "dry_up": 0.74531, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07493, "annualized_volatility": 0.459684, "from_high_reference": -0.685931, "from_low_reference": 0.406536 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2012.100334, "fair_value_reference": 4027.652648, "structural_low": 1530.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.046903, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048745, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.046903, "worst_return": 0.046903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013323, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.552758, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.015315, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.284109, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.291718, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018629, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 2102.733333, 2018.363636, 1911.5, 1987.397205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2196.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2537.7, "trend": 2191.276668, "fair_value": 4036.658994, "relative_strength": -42.784444, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.242146, "energy": 43.511545, "activity_lines": [ 2151.133333, 2061.6, 1943.552381, 1984.615699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2328.0, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 2516.75, "trend": 2148.566667, "fair_value": 4035.223096, "relative_strength": -36.91708, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.981024, "energy": 69.973953, "activity_lines": [ 2227.466667, 2120.563636, 1986.861905, 1993.436559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2300.01001, "volume": 1636, "typical_volume": 2439.1, "trend": 2113.400334, "fair_value": 4033.825724, "relative_strength": -35.900021, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.375063, "energy": 74.52962, "activity_lines": [ 2262.603337, 2166.929093, 2025.653334, 2003.207097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2140.0, "volume": 1062, "typical_volume": 2357.3, "trend": 2076.733667, "fair_value": 4031.402648, "relative_strength": -38.240076, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.521076, "energy": 60.007345, "activity_lines": [ 2229.736003, 2176.747093, 2046.348525, 2004.923205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2299.0, "volume": 958, "typical_volume": 2214.95, "trend": 2047.033667, "fair_value": 4029.998801, "relative_strength": -32.29514, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.457212, "energy": 57.794848, "activity_lines": [ 2253.802002, 2212.056001, 2080.586572, 2019.262968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2152.0, "volume": 3201, "typical_volume": 2300.05, "trend": 2012.100334, "fair_value": 4027.652648, "relative_strength": -34.472783, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.289455, "energy": 41.745092, "activity_lines": [ 2220.268001, 2212.110365, 2098.257953, 2026.03499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }