{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d45b6650-32b6-4a11-8272-bd1b9a2927ef", "symbol": "IQLT", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI INTL QUALITY FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.351, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.44, "architecture_energy": 75.397, "architecture_maturity": 38.151, "architecture_confidence": 74.893, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.97, "rotation_up": 72.77, "upward_expansion": 90.97, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 15.11, "downward_expansion": 15.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.388, 49.890099, 49.242091, 48.627189 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 51.67, "trend_reference": 47.980759, "distance_from_trend": 0.07689, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.910551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294645, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.018549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09137, "excess_performance": -0.034255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07689, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294645, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029049, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000185, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017513, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09137, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.016496, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6719911, "relative_activity": 0.900963, "balance": 1.016496, "dry_up": 1.062187, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02367, "annualized_volatility": 0.167717, "from_high_reference": -0.001932, "from_low_reference": 0.254763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.980759, "fair_value_reference": 39.910551, "structural_low": 43.64016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.011429, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.008402, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.085829, "worst_return": -0.063866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031476, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.032716, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.089843, "worst_return": -0.111965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058064, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066056, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.127973, "worst_return": 0.010902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 39.475429, "relative_strength": -1.682975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.382156, "energy": 58.696643, "activity_lines": [ 49.343773, 48.979002, 48.370695, 47.950047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.47, "volume": 8775746, "typical_volume": 7989461.3, "trend": 47.489612, "fair_value": 39.577369, "relative_strength": -0.312386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.505665, "energy": 52.533935, "activity_lines": [ 49.409333, 49.109362, 48.536278, 48.088508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.43, "volume": 6656030, "typical_volume": 7715101.9, "trend": 47.633351, "fair_value": 39.677806, "relative_strength": 0.200193, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.213586, "energy": 52.641076, "activity_lines": [ 49.441333, 49.220127, 48.695574, 48.213695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.17, "volume": 9537975, "typical_volume": 7561107.0, "trend": 47.797488, "fair_value": 39.789935, "relative_strength": 0.555641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.480938, "energy": 55.176349, "activity_lines": [ 49.713333, 49.432707, 48.909034, 48.37735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.67, "volume": 6719911, "typical_volume": 7458585.15, "trend": 47.980759, "fair_value": 39.910551, "relative_strength": 0.018549, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.440145, "energy": 75.396772, "activity_lines": [ 50.388, 49.890099, 49.242091, 48.627189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }