{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d460a72e-86f5-4627-94b0-712e071eb0e3", "symbol": "BRNK", "name": "Branicks Group AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.08, "architecture_energy": 58.621, "architecture_maturity": 81.453, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.2, "rotation_up": 25.91, "upward_expansion": 8.67, "deceleration": 55.54, "rotation_down": 54.19, "downward_expansion": 79.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.927133, 0.957855, 1.040319, 1.160858 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.774, "trend_reference": 1.3568, "distance_from_trend": -0.42954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.126891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.636089, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.614064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.611055, "excess_performance": -0.675695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.42954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.636089, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.556141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279673, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.611055, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.471061, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 567309, "relative_activity": 2.463593, "balance": 0.471061, "dry_up": 1.27843, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190022, "annualized_volatility": 0.64085, "from_high_reference": -0.640835, "from_low_reference": 0.010444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.3568, "fair_value_reference": 2.126891, "structural_low": 0.766, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.017544, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.03586, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.445221, "worst_return": -0.512338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.205937, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.14164, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.042834, "worst_return": -0.631563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.269813, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.32265, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086842, "worst_return": -0.521591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-35.562578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.172083, "energy": 38.825673, "activity_lines": [ 1.0442, 1.020964, 1.124119, 1.26189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.988, "volume": 239381, "typical_volume": 233005.05, "trend": 1.4252, "fair_value": 2.171532, "relative_strength": -42.279365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.320243, "energy": 36.266083, "activity_lines": [ 1.039533, 1.0124, 1.101119, 1.232088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.942, "volume": 200180, "typical_volume": 211606.0, "trend": 1.394867, "fair_value": 2.150103, "relative_strength": -45.342815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.553641, "energy": 39.450746, "activity_lines": [ 1.0098, 0.998145, 1.077586, 1.200914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.774, "volume": 567309, "typical_volume": 230277.05, "trend": 1.3568, "fair_value": 2.126891, "relative_strength": -55.614064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.079924, "energy": 58.620607, "activity_lines": [ 0.927133, 0.957855, 1.040319, 1.160858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }