{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4619de2-f66c-435a-87f6-d4c3f8a9a7ed", "symbol": "PR2", "name": "Piche Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.019, "architecture_energy": 65.802, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.38, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 54.42, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.024867, 0.025236, 0.03121, 0.044535 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.022, "trend_reference": 0.067117, "distance_from_trend": -0.672213, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.098866, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.777476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -79.001388, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.824, "excess_performance": -0.887706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.672213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351007, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.777476, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.790014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206582, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.824, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.116936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1971777, "relative_activity": 1.617834, "balance": 0.116936, "dry_up": 1.06422, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.334762, "annualized_volatility": 1.339754, "from_high_reference": -0.906383, "from_low_reference": 0.157895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.067117, "fair_value_reference": 0.098866, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.231727, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.0625, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.733333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.682576, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.733333, "worst_return": -0.733333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.816667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 0.15, "volume": 3744477, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 0.145, "volume": 853804, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": 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67.35019, "activity_lines": [ 0.025133, 0.0266, 0.03746, 0.054078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.024, "volume": 1171779, "typical_volume": 1070235.3, "trend": 0.074417, "fair_value": 0.10025, "relative_strength": -76.557129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.190468, "energy": 66.116732, "activity_lines": [ 0.024667, 0.025691, 0.034871, 0.050619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 1794628, "typical_volume": 1152897.8, "trend": 0.070883, "fair_value": 0.099584, "relative_strength": -71.971842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.578457, "energy": 59.227851, "activity_lines": [ 0.026267, 0.026073, 0.033181, 0.047689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.022, "volume": 1971777, "typical_volume": 1218775.95, "trend": 0.067117, "fair_value": 0.098866, "relative_strength": -79.001388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.019297, "energy": 65.801918, "activity_lines": [ 0.024867, 0.025236, 0.03121, 0.044535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }