{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4621fd3-199d-4d5c-b5b3-c903ef59bf68", "symbol": "000151", "name": "China National Complete Plant Import & Export Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.857, "architecture_energy": 73.28, "architecture_maturity": 21.53, "architecture_confidence": 86.372, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.35, "rotation_up": 9.79, "upward_expansion": 16.62, "deceleration": 38.15, "rotation_down": 72.59, "downward_expansion": 89.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.506, 10.106545, 10.999143, 11.41271 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.93, "trend_reference": 11.951333, "distance_from_trend": -0.16913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.208269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.417517, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.258955, "excess_performance": -0.266355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016791, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258955, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.515409, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36511821, "relative_activity": 0.981971, "balance": 0.515409, "dry_up": 0.922262, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124719, "annualized_volatility": 0.449052, "from_high_reference": -0.35225, "from_low_reference": 0.161404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.951333, "fair_value_reference": 12.208269, "structural_low": 8.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.019108, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.023302, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.212747, "worst_return": -0.072043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.029628, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027787, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.556989, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.042201, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004589, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.417204, "worst_return": -0.127677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01396, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049538, "active": false 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-32.737344, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.35849, "energy": 64.814359, "activity_lines": [ 10.83, 11.747091, 11.904143, 12.121613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.1, "volume": 34170588, "typical_volume": 35103183.15, "trend": 12.202667, "fair_value": 12.266154, "relative_strength": -27.130301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.024095, "energy": 83.543403, "activity_lines": [ 9.99, 11.206182, 11.617762, 11.91529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.0, "volume": 37348626, "typical_volume": 35624435.4, "trend": 12.101, "fair_value": 12.242372, "relative_strength": -27.468082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.143041, "energy": 86.030592, "activity_lines": [ 9.439333, 10.701273, 11.343952, 11.708667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.6, "volume": 29135732, "typical_volume": 36182446.15, "trend": 12.016333, "fair_value": 12.223333, "relative_strength": -20.737875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.622722, "energy": 82.300304, "activity_lines": [ 9.371333, 10.356, 11.147762, 11.547312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.93, "volume": 36511821, "typical_volume": 37182162.3, "trend": 11.951333, "fair_value": 12.208269, "relative_strength": -21.417517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.856624, "energy": 73.280019, "activity_lines": [ 9.506, 10.106545, 10.999143, 11.41271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }