{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d464a749-1af0-4c70-aaa2-4cfdd53caabe", "symbol": "00692", "name": "Fubon TWSE Corporate Governance 100 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.186, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.295, "architecture_energy": 30.014, "architecture_maturity": 70.292, "architecture_confidence": 83.518, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.15, "rotation_up": 34.44, "upward_expansion": 62.17, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.61, "downward_expansion": 21.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.59582, 88.122527, 86.636325, 82.756167 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 88.150002, "trend_reference": 77.246464, "distance_from_trend": 0.141153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.252546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.865508, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.174052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.376269, "excess_performance": -0.003043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165495, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.865508, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145356, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001741, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037149, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.376269, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.224534, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6050616, "relative_activity": 0.986184, "balance": 1.224534, "dry_up": 1.380657, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053776, "annualized_volatility": 0.284827, "from_high_reference": -0.054184, "from_low_reference": 0.968808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.246464, "fair_value_reference": 47.252546, "structural_low": 62.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0173, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.002469, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196203, "worst_return": -0.054394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.100697, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.003246, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.262128, "worst_return": -0.071083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102211, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024932, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.271903, "worst_return": -0.149799, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101639, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116543, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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"volume": 13516316, "typical_volume": 6199276.05, "trend": 76.259798, "fair_value": 46.87808, "relative_strength": 2.568614, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.988104, "energy": 33.857155, "activity_lines": [ 87.628568, 88.223325, 86.053915, 81.989057 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.150002, "volume": 6050616, "typical_volume": 6135385.15, "trend": 77.246464, "fair_value": 47.252546, "relative_strength": 0.174052, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.29539, "energy": 30.014458, "activity_lines": [ 87.59582, 88.122527, 86.636325, 82.756167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }