{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d46e67ce-8eb8-4851-a1be-855db1c6edb3", "symbol": "002344", "name": "Haining China Leather Market Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.885, "architecture_energy": 37.577, "architecture_maturity": 90.621, "architecture_confidence": 88.628, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.26, "rotation_up": 27.24, "upward_expansion": 18.07, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 36.22, "downward_expansion": 65.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.705333, 3.671612, 3.836331, 4.02499 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.75, "trend_reference": 4.293436, "distance_from_trend": -0.126574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.13261, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.610042, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.243952, "excess_performance": -0.251351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078859, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141306, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028239, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243952, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42243910, "relative_activity": 0.99949, "balance": 0.447139, "dry_up": 1.111858, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06786, "annualized_volatility": 0.216846, "from_high_reference": -0.300373, "from_low_reference": 0.083501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.293436, "fair_value_reference": 4.13261, "structural_low": 3.461003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.017778, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.00614, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.19281, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.037666, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.006604, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.192859, "worst_return": -0.153499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013577, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.075669, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.122222, "worst_return": -0.162844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 4.414436, "fair_value": 4.152499, "relative_strength": -18.240971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.20177, "energy": 63.965155, "activity_lines": [ 3.627926, 3.700871, 3.95128, 4.155096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.56, "volume": 48413546, "typical_volume": 43059566.7, "trend": 4.36577, "fair_value": 4.145366, "relative_strength": -21.033883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.540911, "energy": 60.182444, "activity_lines": [ 3.609993, 3.654997, 3.894551, 4.099971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.78, "volume": 46903557, "typical_volume": 42911241.9, "trend": 4.326436, "fair_value": 4.139582, "relative_strength": -14.276509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.074941, "energy": 44.89819, "activity_lines": [ 3.672637, 3.662213, 3.864632, 4.06218 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.75, "volume": 42243910, "typical_volume": 42265476.35, "trend": 4.293436, "fair_value": 4.13261, "relative_strength": -18.610042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.884799, "energy": 37.577432, "activity_lines": [ 3.705333, 3.671612, 3.836331, 4.02499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }