{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d476e1fd-96bc-4d20-8dbe-c3878c638808", "symbol": "HEX", "name": "Helix Exploration PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.891, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.973, "architecture_energy": 52.246, "architecture_maturity": 13.042, "architecture_confidence": 85.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.03, "rotation_up": 17.75, "upward_expansion": 8.37, "deceleration": 47.96, "rotation_down": 60.89, "downward_expansion": 81.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2565, 0.265091, 0.306624, 0.321288 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.324833, "distance_from_trend": -0.138019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.239201, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.296148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098039, "excess_performance": 0.046804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008225, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.410464, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098039, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.543202, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11910071, "relative_activity": 1.283738, "balance": 1.543202, "dry_up": 1.105249, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163989, "annualized_volatility": 0.613225, "from_high_reference": -0.410526, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.324833, "fair_value_reference": 0.239201, "structural_low": 0.225, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.393671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-12", "close": 0.11, "volume": 25202289, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-19", "close": 0.106, "volume": 13182593, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null 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"Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.97703, "energy": 58.551821, "activity_lines": [ 0.296333, 0.329782, 0.354031, 0.345643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.2425, "volume": 17891593, "typical_volume": 10639724.9, "trend": 0.328083, "fair_value": 0.238708, "relative_strength": -24.050249, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.393958, "energy": 67.516262, "activity_lines": [ 0.271033, 0.310527, 0.343114, 0.340052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.24, "volume": 10959230, "typical_volume": 10231190.35, "trend": 0.326917, "fair_value": 0.238718, "relative_strength": -25.228304, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.515451, "energy": 74.180519, "activity_lines": [ 0.253567, 0.292918, 0.332162, 0.334369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.255, "volume": 9036229, "typical_volume": 9477085.5, "trend": 0.32625, "fair_value": 0.238854, "relative_strength": -21.26729, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.810275, "energy": 72.577389, "activity_lines": [ 0.248767, 0.280309, 0.322948, 0.329729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.24, "volume": 9110919, "typical_volume": 9298797.4, "trend": 0.324583, "fair_value": 0.238864, "relative_strength": -26.592894, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.793726, "energy": 81.089892, "activity_lines": [ 0.2443, 0.267518, 0.312638, 0.324165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.28, "volume": 11910071, "typical_volume": 9277646.75, "trend": 0.324833, "fair_value": 0.239201, "relative_strength": -14.296148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.97286, "energy": 52.245637, "activity_lines": [ 0.2565, 0.265091, 0.306624, 0.321288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }