{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d47ccb48-dec8-476b-8022-34c85cdd97fd",
    "symbol": "NPI",
    "name": "Northland Power Inc.",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": -2.317,
    "architecture_energy": 13.087,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.304,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.965,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.83,
        "rotation_up": 19.33,
        "upward_expansion": 41.52,
        "deceleration": 77.26,
        "rotation_down": 37.69,
        "downward_expansion": 37.85
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        21.818454,
        21.910638,
        22.316895,
        22.246492
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 21.68,
    "trend_reference": 21.765949,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.003949,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 20.23334,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071499,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.609958,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.132242,
    "excess_performance": 0.011821,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003949,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065262,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.071499,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068254,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0961,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.074459,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.132242,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.858097,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5078100,
      "relative_activity": 1.332464,
      "balance": 0.858097,
      "dry_up": 1.090307,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.04159,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.247989,
      "from_high_reference": -0.146312,
      "from_low_reference": 0.390185
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 21.765949,
      "fair_value_reference": 20.23334,
      "structural_low": 18.949933,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.007895,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.015529,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.098163,
        "worst_return": -0.041865,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.07479,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.125793,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.095974,
        "worst_return": -0.20711,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.006109,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.196083,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.018012,
        "worst_return": -0.180689,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.14775,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.143325,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.14775,
        "worst_return": -0.14775,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.152671,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.081734,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.009315,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.058575,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.05161,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.098698,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.098855,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021124,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
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        "return": 0.166886,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": -0.047044,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.163537,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.081024,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.020763,
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": -0.042313,
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 3846840.0,
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        "fair_value": 20.217379,
        "relative_strength": -8.123975,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": -2.591619,
        "energy": 19.585353,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.01923,
        "volume": 3585600,
        "typical_volume": 3731660.0,
        "trend": 21.509454,
        "fair_value": 20.215765,
        "relative_strength": -6.532985,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "direction": 1.943587,
        "energy": 17.625226,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.881586,
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          22.480597,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 21.82,
        "volume": 4019500,
        "typical_volume": 3773990.0,
        "trend": 21.636418,
        "fair_value": 20.219835,
        "relative_strength": -6.520941,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 0.906201,
        "energy": 12.36088,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.869716,
          22.014586,
          22.406758,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.68,
        "volume": 5078100,
        "typical_volume": 3811060.0,
        "trend": 21.765949,
        "fair_value": 20.23334,
        "relative_strength": -9.609958,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -2.316712,
        "energy": 13.086912,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.818454,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}