{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d47d5d05-4e9c-4977-ad61-127f76d664ff", "symbol": "DOW", "name": "Dow Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.387, "architecture_energy": 41.441, "architecture_maturity": 34.188, "architecture_confidence": 86.805, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.54, "rotation_up": 24.84, "upward_expansion": 10.8, "deceleration": 53.77, "rotation_down": 45.5, "downward_expansion": 72.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.75, 29.816727, 31.987314, 32.971061 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.34, "trend_reference": 33.084361, "distance_from_trend": -0.113176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.964347, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206262, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.795932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05658, "excess_performance": -0.182204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206262, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166023, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278073, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05658, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.53499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47140927, "relative_activity": 0.787505, "balance": 0.53499, "dry_up": 0.860074, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095058, "annualized_volatility": 0.423367, "from_high_reference": -0.306405, "from_low_reference": 0.51232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.084361, "fair_value_reference": 36.964347, "structural_low": 26.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037808, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.005998, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.128759, "worst_return": -0.095308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073387, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.02136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087831, "worst_return": -0.140909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038567, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.081409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040322, "worst_return": -0.223689, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008233, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035051, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115107, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.460964, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098456, "active": false }, { 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.152621, "energy": 62.229595, "activity_lines": [ 29.361333, 31.312496, 33.862295, 33.687737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.92, "volume": 45376070, "typical_volume": 64626864.5, "trend": 32.512296, "fair_value": 37.28268, "relative_strength": -2.582649, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.808017, "energy": 63.937657, "activity_lines": [ 29.244, 30.760419, 33.384222, 33.535886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.84, "volume": 55988125, "typical_volume": 63223427.15, "trend": 32.74725, "fair_value": 37.17495, "relative_strength": -2.355568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.165662, "energy": 55.001283, "activity_lines": [ 29.362, 30.31328, 32.900886, 33.36348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.29, "volume": 57434907, "typical_volume": 60922895.6, "trend": 32.965237, "fair_value": 37.075227, "relative_strength": -2.269103, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.943764, "energy": 33.583599, "activity_lines": [ 29.756, 30.102727, 32.475162, 33.204947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.34, "volume": 47140927, "typical_volume": 59861117.55, "trend": 33.084361, "fair_value": 36.964347, "relative_strength": -8.795932, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.387024, "energy": 41.440559, "activity_lines": [ 29.75, 29.816727, 31.987314, 32.971061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }