{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d47db266-70be-45e5-8f5a-b3e7e2d2a6de", "symbol": "TI5G", "name": "iShares $ TIPS 0-5 UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.898, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.224, "architecture_energy": 23.014, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.388, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.77, "rotation_up": 45.47, "upward_expansion": 74.66, "deceleration": 58.25, "rotation_down": 19.92, "downward_expansion": 1.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.6854, 4.683109, 4.682178, 4.67568 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.6895, "trend_reference": 4.663391, "distance_from_trend": 0.005599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.407076, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.798811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013293, "excess_performance": -0.037943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064084, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026809, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013293, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.528437, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1304543, "relative_activity": 1.089543, "balance": 0.528437, "dry_up": 1.849138, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008551, "annualized_volatility": 0.018624, "from_high_reference": -0.008629, "from_low_reference": 0.034757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.663391, "fair_value_reference": 4.407076, "structural_low": 4.609951, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.002958, "positive_rate": 0.704545, "directional_follow_through": 0.704545, "median_excess_return": -0.006804, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.012603, "worst_return": -0.015199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.011399, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001273, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.027018, "worst_return": -0.023272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020723, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013583, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.037897, "worst_return": -0.033148, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.44909, "energy": 21.541737, "activity_lines": [ 4.683167, 4.681627, 4.680098, 4.67226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.6825, "volume": 2630115, "typical_volume": 1212144.35, "trend": 4.660804, "fair_value": 4.403092, "relative_strength": -6.926966, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.145699, "energy": 21.186224, "activity_lines": [ 4.6834, 4.681809, 4.680875, 4.673829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6895, "volume": 1304543, "typical_volume": 1197330.7, "trend": 4.663391, "fair_value": 4.407076, "relative_strength": -6.798811, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.22412, "energy": 23.013813, "activity_lines": [ 4.6854, 4.683109, 4.682178, 4.67568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }