{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d47ec4bc-2b8e-4a0e-81c5-ec6d73a59194", "symbol": "SAFE", "name": "Safe at Sea AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.879, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.038, "architecture_energy": 14.49, "architecture_maturity": 40.756, "architecture_confidence": 60.225, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.25, "rotation_up": 23.08, "upward_expansion": 18.08, "deceleration": 40.04, "rotation_down": 36.71, "downward_expansion": 56.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.178333, 1.177182, 1.183095, 1.192839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.15, "trend_reference": 1.228833, "distance_from_trend": -0.064153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.890064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292042, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.278181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190141, "excess_performance": -0.251635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005729, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190141, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.997263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7273, "relative_activity": 0.074002, "balance": 0.997263, "dry_up": 0.366689, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099666, "annualized_volatility": 0.439288, "from_high_reference": -0.253247, "from_low_reference": 0.533333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.228833, "fair_value_reference": 0.890064, "structural_low": 1.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.005102, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.002379, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.282258, "worst_return": -0.363208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030769, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010095, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.44898, "worst_return": -0.371005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003544, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056568, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.413043, "worst_return": -0.41779, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.13, "volume": 113401, "typical_volume": 159251.15, "trend": 1.252833, "fair_value": 0.875577, "relative_strength": -6.598854, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.362292, "energy": 40.238178, "activity_lines": [ 1.157333, 1.180727, 1.181214, 1.207989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.195, "volume": 29208, "typical_volume": 113044.75, "trend": 1.248333, "fair_value": 0.878782, "relative_strength": -0.410469, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.414515, "energy": 30.269248, "activity_lines": [ 1.166333, 1.181455, 1.182333, 1.204258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.215, "volume": 19098, "typical_volume": 108393.05, "trend": 1.244833, "fair_value": 0.882917, "relative_strength": -0.583409, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.370837, "energy": 15.728148, "activity_lines": [ 1.182333, 1.186091, 1.185381, 1.202108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.19, "volume": 88575, "typical_volume": 107795.7, "trend": 1.238833, "fair_value": 0.886474, "relative_strength": -4.178035, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.105617, "energy": 12.958889, "activity_lines": [ 1.187667, 1.185091, 1.186167, 1.19857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.15, "volume": 7273, "typical_volume": 98280.7, "trend": 1.228833, "fair_value": 0.890064, "relative_strength": -9.278181, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.03763, "energy": 14.490269, "activity_lines": [ 1.178333, 1.177182, 1.183095, 1.192839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }