{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d48af472-4661-49db-b884-b850439a83fc", "symbol": "NOAH", "name": "Noah Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.251, "architecture_energy": 61.614, "architecture_maturity": 44.162, "architecture_confidence": 86.47, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 16.44, "upward_expansion": 11.14, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 68.34, "downward_expansion": 86.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.671333, 8.883438, 9.370087, 9.780618 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.78, "trend_reference": 10.354064, "distance_from_trend": -0.152024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.748511, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09935, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.162448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250213, "excess_performance": -0.375838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04203, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09935, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 793141, "relative_activity": 1.600556, "balance": 0.765039, "dry_up": 1.067268, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07087, "annualized_volatility": 0.269381, "from_high_reference": -0.316199, "from_low_reference": 0.078624 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.354064, "fair_value_reference": 9.748511, "structural_low": 8.14, 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"trend": 10.49573, "fair_value": 9.770532, "relative_strength": -27.038424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.355057, "energy": 76.893874, "activity_lines": [ 8.861846, 9.143507, 9.615057, 10.018605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.45, "volume": 440726, "typical_volume": 482989.75, "trend": 10.423064, "fair_value": 9.757229, "relative_strength": -28.145375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.071674, "energy": 79.119323, "activity_lines": [ 8.684535, 8.969291, 9.46981, 9.886622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.78, "volume": 793141, "typical_volume": 495540.85, "trend": 10.354064, "fair_value": 9.748511, "relative_strength": -27.162448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.250994, "energy": 61.614119, "activity_lines": [ 8.671333, 8.883438, 9.370087, 9.780618 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }