{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d48d48bb-35ae-4ac0-a5d8-7393b45a3c10", "symbol": "ITN", "name": "Intertainment AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.71, "architecture_energy": 59.059, "architecture_maturity": 57.054, "architecture_confidence": 91.48, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.97, "rotation_up": 13.67, "upward_expansion": 11.38, "deceleration": 40.4, "rotation_down": 62.25, "downward_expansion": 82.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.333333, 0.346255, 0.361995, 0.380335 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.321, "trend_reference": 0.407967, "distance_from_trend": -0.213171, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.473436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.196394, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.401119, "excess_performance": -0.465759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085482, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.341964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170476, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.401119, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.187653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2015, "relative_activity": 0.713666, "balance": 0.187653, "dry_up": 0.747932, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149772, "annualized_volatility": 0.480382, "from_high_reference": -0.482258, "from_low_reference": 0.106897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.407967, "fair_value_reference": 0.473436, "structural_low": 0.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.030328, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.051606, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.262729, "worst_return": -0.19797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.117023, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.106965, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.242775, "worst_return": -0.247863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031818, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.099811, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.064356, "worst_return": -0.401119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094595, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153355, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169811, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.060349, "energy": 38.784451, "activity_lines": [ 0.3596, 0.364491, 0.377814, 0.396708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.325, "volume": 409, "typical_volume": 2898.55, "trend": 0.416, "fair_value": 0.476583, "relative_strength": -31.472426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.188866, "energy": 44.432741, "activity_lines": [ 0.346, 0.356364, 0.371371, 0.390622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.348, "volume": 2011, "typical_volume": 2823.1, "trend": 0.412433, "fair_value": 0.474872, "relative_strength": -27.473144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.372188, "energy": 44.644307, "activity_lines": [ 0.343267, 0.353291, 0.36769, 0.386234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.321, "volume": 2015, "typical_volume": 2823.45, "trend": 0.407967, "fair_value": 0.473436, "relative_strength": -34.196394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.710359, "energy": 59.059213, "activity_lines": [ 0.333333, 0.346255, 0.361995, 0.380335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }