{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d48ebbee-05fa-47de-8136-e154601e8e23", "symbol": "SRJ", "name": "SRJ Technologies Group Plc", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.978, "architecture_energy": 34.249, "architecture_maturity": 29.391, "architecture_confidence": 73.483, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.05, "rotation_up": 12.23, "upward_expansion": 13.39, "deceleration": 47.54, "rotation_down": 59.11, "downward_expansion": 72.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.01, 0.010909, 0.011352, 0.011244 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.009, "trend_reference": 0.0115, "distance_from_trend": -0.217391, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.04142, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.782713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.346634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.782713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019631, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.623134, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41163903, "relative_activity": 1.048561, "balance": 3.623134, "dry_up": 1.46614, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.410256, "annualized_volatility": 0.871078, "from_high_reference": -0.653846, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0115, "fair_value_reference": 0.04142, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.151247, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.160787, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.372549, "worst_return": -0.3625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.295635, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.303547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.31, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.162857, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.194985, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.449275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.522222, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.610297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.1, "worst_return": -0.944444, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.866667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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6.361925, "activity_lines": [ 0.011933, 0.012491, 0.011698, 0.011681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.012, "volume": 89736358, "typical_volume": 34554722.2, "trend": 0.012033, "fair_value": 0.042337, "relative_strength": -4.366734, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.25176, "energy": 6.280564, "activity_lines": [ 0.011867, 0.012409, 0.011774, 0.011674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 49604546, "typical_volume": 36540297.9, "trend": 0.0119, "fair_value": 0.042067, "relative_strength": -20.808253, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.776296, "energy": 10.833685, "activity_lines": [ 0.0112, 0.011945, 0.01166, 0.011543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01, "volume": 49723294, "typical_volume": 37683035.55, "trend": 0.011733, "fair_value": 0.041779, "relative_strength": -23.280771, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.431638, "energy": 24.087515, "activity_lines": [ 0.010733, 0.011491, 0.01155, 0.01142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.009, "volume": 41163903, "typical_volume": 39257512.3, "trend": 0.0115, "fair_value": 0.04142, "relative_strength": -33.346634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.977582, "energy": 34.248904, "activity_lines": [ 0.01, 0.010909, 0.011352, 0.011244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }