{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d48f4cf7-2c37-46dc-8461-1589f6306a7f", "symbol": "82823", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.255, "architecture_energy": 21.107, "architecture_maturity": 26.132, "architecture_confidence": 57.963, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.61, "rotation_up": 16.37, "upward_expansion": 14.73, "deceleration": 62.53, "rotation_down": 56.89, "downward_expansion": 42.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.548667, 14.646182, 14.790476, 14.717914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.66, "trend_reference": 14.608, "distance_from_trend": 0.00356, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.632455, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160503, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.774033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02805, "excess_performance": 0.061632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00356, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160503, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02805, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.661424, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 650000, "relative_activity": 0.389268, "balance": 0.661424, "dry_up": 2.512457, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032952, "annualized_volatility": 0.123798, "from_high_reference": -0.056628, "from_low_reference": 0.100294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.608, "fair_value_reference": 12.632455, "structural_low": 13.74, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005301, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.013571, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.040453, "worst_return": -0.03892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023973, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004294, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.033103, "worst_return": -0.066512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026025, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.057824, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.124754, "worst_return": -0.009281, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.54307, "energy": 32.558824, "activity_lines": [ 15.076667, 15.079273, 14.881714, 14.746559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.69, "volume": 879700, "typical_volume": 1006145.0, "trend": 14.641, "fair_value": 12.552597, "relative_strength": 11.890441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.740119, "energy": 20.501268, "activity_lines": [ 14.934, 15.009455, 14.883905, 14.750022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.7, "volume": 2843800, "typical_volume": 1148335.0, "trend": 14.644333, "fair_value": 12.570966, "relative_strength": 7.911195, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.654851, "energy": 18.428588, "activity_lines": [ 14.837333, 14.947273, 14.884619, 14.753828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.14, "volume": 9875700, "typical_volume": 1587350.0, "trend": 14.629667, "fair_value": 12.585925, "relative_strength": 2.010754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.038108, "energy": 34.02696, "activity_lines": [ 14.573333, 14.789636, 14.829619, 14.72129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.69, "volume": 2921800, "typical_volume": 1616110.0, "trend": 14.627667, "fair_value": 12.600958, "relative_strength": 4.051889, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.634673, "energy": 25.23626, "activity_lines": [ 14.558667, 14.749273, 14.826762, 14.725183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.47, "volume": 3333700, "typical_volume": 1680390.0, "trend": 14.615, "fair_value": 12.616187, "relative_strength": -1.241833, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.772999, "energy": 25.700038, "activity_lines": [ 14.508, 14.676727, 14.800095, 14.715011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.66, "volume": 650000, "typical_volume": 1669800.0, "trend": 14.608, "fair_value": 12.632455, "relative_strength": 0.774033, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.255476, "energy": 21.106804, "activity_lines": [ 14.548667, 14.646182, 14.790476, 14.717914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }