{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4a10dc5-75a8-4ef5-b752-51ba4999e0ef", "symbol": "605577", "name": "Heilongjiang Publishing & Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.192, "architecture_energy": 47.502, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.65, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 20.92, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 42.33, "downward_expansion": 70.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.405333, 9.322445, 9.876167, 10.610982 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.5, "trend_reference": 11.614905, "distance_from_trend": -0.182085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.286723, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.335047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.791368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.324805, "excess_performance": -0.281601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107803, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.335047, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324805, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.309118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15579734, "relative_activity": 1.090675, "balance": 0.309118, "dry_up": 1.10737, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070974, "annualized_volatility": 0.274293, "from_high_reference": -0.420378, "from_low_reference": 0.097533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.614905, "fair_value_reference": 14.286723, "structural_low": 8.655777, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.002835, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.024469, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.258621, "worst_return": -0.139265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037011, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030739, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.234675, "worst_return": -0.247954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052545, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.816092, "worst_return": 0.029423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.96, "volume": 14774627, "typical_volume": 14207660.75, "trend": 11.836571, "fair_value": 14.308812, "relative_strength": -26.850983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.820622, "energy": 65.248666, "activity_lines": [ 9.126947, 9.27654, 10.116473, 10.893593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.69, "volume": 14520605, "typical_volume": 14114470.5, "trend": 11.733905, "fair_value": 14.297337, "relative_strength": -20.71148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.181118, "energy": 56.082459, "activity_lines": [ 9.329333, 9.309108, 9.996677, 10.755104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.5, "volume": 15579734, "typical_volume": 14284490.55, "trend": 11.614905, "fair_value": 14.286723, "relative_strength": -23.791368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.192184, "energy": 47.502412, "activity_lines": [ 9.405333, 9.322445, 9.876167, 10.610982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }