{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4a70eba-8ff3-4104-ac37-385d0630e43c", "symbol": "300822", "name": "Shenzhen Bestek Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.486, "architecture_energy": 56.157, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.45, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 18.34, "upward_expansion": 8.96, "deceleration": 59.63, "rotation_down": 62.76, "downward_expansion": 82.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.208667, 11.494909, 12.5269, 13.195868 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.95, "trend_reference": 14.154253, "distance_from_trend": -0.155731, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.295547, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.218727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.798959, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.26456, "excess_performance": -0.27196, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155731, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.218727, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007179, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.696968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55285908, "relative_activity": 3.940903, "balance": 0.696968, "dry_up": 2.020386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101251, "annualized_volatility": 0.360176, "from_high_reference": -0.442859, "from_low_reference": 0.187873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.154253, "fair_value_reference": 15.295547, "structural_low": 10.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.007998, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010443, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.723769, "worst_return": -0.280224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.048761, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.074775, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.606828, "worst_return": -0.24216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046592, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.041883, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.327092, "worst_return": -0.284245, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.807129, "energy": 90.484865, "activity_lines": [ 11.935333, 12.730361, 13.525724, 14.094217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.11, "volume": 19214377, "typical_volume": 11306168.95, "trend": 14.649509, "fair_value": 15.336885, "relative_strength": -32.054355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.927176, "energy": 88.885559, "activity_lines": [ 11.570667, 12.302909, 13.243403, 13.855133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.17, "volume": 20526918, "typical_volume": 11353684.2, "trend": 14.45886, "fair_value": 15.317759, "relative_strength": -37.076166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.037926, "energy": 90.125626, "activity_lines": [ 11.02, 11.787818, 12.894744, 13.566132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.06, "volume": 18346655, "typical_volume": 11736727.45, "trend": 14.290226, "fair_value": 15.300733, "relative_strength": -29.592425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.138947, "energy": 74.834077, "activity_lines": [ 10.947333, 11.524909, 12.658083, 13.346851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.95, "volume": 55285908, "typical_volume": 14028739.85, "trend": 14.154253, "fair_value": 15.295547, "relative_strength": -26.798959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.485796, "energy": 56.156593, "activity_lines": [ 11.208667, 11.494909, 12.5269, 13.195868 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }