{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4ae85ce-c294-443c-a42a-2c0fcae62066", "symbol": "HPE", "name": "Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.493, "architecture_energy": 60.81, "architecture_maturity": 90.428, "architecture_confidence": 76.492, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 53.77, "upward_expansion": 81.24, "deceleration": 71.32, "rotation_down": 26.25, "downward_expansion": 10.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.748666, 41.584375, 37.969518, 33.769916 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.369999, "trend_reference": 28.542704, "distance_from_trend": 0.589548, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.968664, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.39184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 53.019347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.283862, "excess_performance": 1.109616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.589548, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.341985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.39184, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.877291, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.530193, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.392814, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.283862, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.9601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6498, "relative_activity": 4.303739, "balance": 2.9601, "dry_up": 2.829751, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1054, "annualized_volatility": 0.539753, "from_high_reference": -0.024721, "from_low_reference": 1.687647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.542704, "fair_value_reference": 18.968664, "structural_low": 16.880934, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.005105, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.004313, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.574389, "worst_return": -0.313067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.019263, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.001098, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.706456, "worst_return": -0.384073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052982, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.108888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158414, "worst_return": -0.211352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.079904, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022099, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.138856, "worst_return": -0.252426, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203943, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12513, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.289421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003239, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", 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"trend": 24.837631, "fair_value": 18.072846, "relative_strength": 31.50988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.624716, "energy": 66.926641, "activity_lines": [ 39.07071, 37.658316, 32.023882, 28.567161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.41, "volume": 9363, "typical_volume": 797.45, "trend": 25.616537, "fair_value": 18.26224, "relative_strength": 57.552, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.044545, "energy": 70.525135, "activity_lines": [ 40.095834, 39.200476, 33.535424, 29.765378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.639999, "volume": 1360, "typical_volume": 865.45, "trend": 26.246243, "fair_value": 18.424399, "relative_strength": 45.080529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.813922, "energy": 58.481022, "activity_lines": [ 39.858, 39.705178, 34.567081, 30.670118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.509998, "volume": 6587, "typical_volume": 1170.9, "trend": 26.968969, "fair_value": 18.603037, "relative_strength": 51.462405, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.024164, "energy": 62.528378, "activity_lines": [ 40.784666, 40.47488, 35.77018, 31.719392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.040001, "volume": 2645, "typical_volume": 1184.95, "trend": 27.657913, "fair_value": 18.772666, "relative_strength": 44.519363, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.004082, "energy": 57.407557, "activity_lines": [ 41.146666, 40.719592, 36.716775, 32.627201 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.369999, "volume": 6498, "typical_volume": 1509.85, "trend": 28.542704, "fair_value": 18.968664, "relative_strength": 53.019347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.493204, "energy": 60.809808, "activity_lines": [ 42.748666, 41.584375, 37.969518, 33.769916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }