{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4c17e2b-6938-4e0a-9615-82c668e1e6f6", "symbol": "600812", "name": "North China Pharmaceutical Company.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.456, "architecture_energy": 22.164, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.316, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.22, "rotation_up": 38.17, "upward_expansion": 21.03, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 16.56, "downward_expansion": 52.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.822667, 4.690631, 4.726571, 4.890195 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.96, "trend_reference": 5.113236, "distance_from_trend": -0.029969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.462624, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.286307, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.12522, "excess_performance": -0.082017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092011, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02875, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107734, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.179671, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102494089, "relative_activity": 1.258256, "balance": 1.179671, "dry_up": 1.529504, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059398, "annualized_volatility": 0.247701, "from_high_reference": -0.303371, "from_low_reference": 0.180952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.113236, "fair_value_reference": 5.462624, "structural_low": 4.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.013223, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": 0.005575, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.125942, "worst_return": -0.12218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.043875, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.015012, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.381517, "worst_return": -0.203862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.050955, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.062367, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.177551, "worst_return": -0.242296, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129934, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048276, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -10.273109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.037115, "energy": 40.418129, "activity_lines": [ 4.606, 4.542826, 4.762673, 4.956822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.67, "volume": 122841259, "typical_volume": 98827167.75, "trend": 5.158903, "fair_value": 5.471572, "relative_strength": -13.369651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.192354, "energy": 27.428484, "activity_lines": [ 4.656, 4.562444, 4.732591, 4.923172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.82, "volume": 76150974, "typical_volume": 82822833.15, "trend": 5.132236, "fair_value": 5.466681, "relative_strength": -10.223296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.718551, "energy": 26.640055, "activity_lines": [ 4.736667, 4.615512, 4.720843, 4.901307 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.96, "volume": 102494089, "typical_volume": 81457268.5, "trend": 5.113236, "fair_value": 5.462624, "relative_strength": -9.286307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.456107, "energy": 22.163957, "activity_lines": [ 4.822667, 4.690631, 4.726571, 4.890195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }