{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4c22bcf-8a45-4288-a0d4-c6d28b0887e2", "symbol": "UEDV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Dividend Aristocrats Screened UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.933, "architecture_energy": 69.828, "architecture_maturity": 35.511, "architecture_confidence": 61.808, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 78.39, "upward_expansion": 87.32, "deceleration": 55.98, "rotation_down": 12.08, "downward_expansion": 11.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.576333, 24.349675, 23.838309, 23.563589 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.8375, "trend_reference": 23.294402, "distance_from_trend": 0.066243, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.785812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.144028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053349, "excess_performance": 0.002114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066243, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040489, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.194926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074354, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02144, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028914, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668983, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3973, "relative_activity": 0.537731, "balance": 0.668983, "dry_up": 1.717004, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019091, "annualized_volatility": 0.117461, "from_high_reference": -0.015557, "from_low_reference": 0.20934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.294402, "fair_value_reference": 20.785812, "structural_low": 21.955601, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.003752, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.011609, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.068287, "worst_return": -0.052242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012607, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.028104, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.061176, "worst_return": -0.092559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030355, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.036165, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.10137, "worst_return": -0.041311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 6106.2, "trend": 23.006807, "fair_value": 20.685944, "relative_strength": 4.474666, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.841372, "energy": 96.032588, "activity_lines": [ 24.263393, 23.91398, 23.447163, 23.280173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.5375, "volume": 20994, "typical_volume": 7155.9, "trend": 23.108017, "fair_value": 20.717666, "relative_strength": 2.410487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.8204, "energy": 89.968269, "activity_lines": [ 24.413333, 24.087328, 23.582202, 23.378927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.334999, "volume": 14837, "typical_volume": 7376.0, "trend": 23.202229, "fair_value": 20.749233, "relative_strength": 0.355599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.004496, "energy": 67.392005, "activity_lines": [ 24.420166, 24.185759, 23.690473, 23.458088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.8375, "volume": 3973, "typical_volume": 7388.45, "trend": 23.294402, "fair_value": 20.785812, "relative_strength": 2.144028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.932987, "energy": 69.827775, "activity_lines": [ 24.576333, 24.349675, 23.838309, 23.563589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }