{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4c6f807-e29b-4ff5-9c08-9b672ff2762d", "symbol": "CGH", "name": "Country Group Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.695, "architecture_energy": 26.324, "architecture_maturity": 60.158, "architecture_confidence": 76.049, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.09, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 56.86, "deceleration": 91.0, "rotation_down": 27.05, "downward_expansion": 20.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.543333, 0.548364, 0.533476, 0.514086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.54, "trend_reference": 0.495333, "distance_from_trend": 0.090175, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.605128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107627, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.964568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08, "excess_performance": -0.112325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090175, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107627, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13991, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103226, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.153563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4939400, "relative_activity": 0.877899, "balance": 1.153563, "dry_up": 1.695236, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062678, "annualized_volatility": 0.261215, "from_high_reference": -0.142857, "from_low_reference": 0.35 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.495333, "fair_value_reference": 0.605128, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.03084, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.025413, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.141791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031057, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.081511, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.027273, "worst_return": -0.22695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.12, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.146989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.481818, "worst_return": -0.453901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.516286, 0.500624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.54, "volume": 23105500, "typical_volume": 6746510.0, "trend": 0.489, "fair_value": 0.609551, "relative_strength": -11.783824, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.991514, "energy": 48.678809, "activity_lines": [ 0.552667, 0.550364, 0.521143, 0.504022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.55, "volume": 4943200, "typical_volume": 6116400.0, "trend": 0.491667, "fair_value": 0.608269, "relative_strength": -9.937304, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.106851, "energy": 36.417282, "activity_lines": [ 0.55, 0.551636, 0.526429, 0.507957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.54, "volume": 5164100, "typical_volume": 5853740.0, "trend": 0.493333, "fair_value": 0.606859, "relative_strength": -10.021334, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.673885, "energy": 32.035469, "activity_lines": [ 0.545333, 0.550182, 0.53019, 0.511075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.54, "volume": 4939400, "typical_volume": 5626385.0, "trend": 0.495333, "fair_value": 0.605128, "relative_strength": -8.964568, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.695391, "energy": 26.324459, "activity_lines": [ 0.543333, 0.548364, 0.533476, 0.514086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }