{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4cc756c-628f-4080-bd85-2702f6fb90d9", "symbol": "HYLS", "name": "FIRST TRUST TACTICAL HIGH YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.175, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.82, "architecture_energy": 21.277, "architecture_maturity": 34.467, "architecture_confidence": 67.945, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.03, "rotation_up": 44.77, "upward_expansion": 75.16, "deceleration": 54.68, "rotation_down": 20.97, "downward_expansion": 4.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.587989, 40.55621, 40.542323, 40.49951 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.73, "trend_reference": 40.493822, "distance_from_trend": 0.005832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.821395, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.022772, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002793, "excess_performance": -0.184661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002793, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.810707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 841431, "relative_activity": 0.683778, "balance": 0.810707, "dry_up": 0.893132, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022147, "annualized_volatility": 0.03492, "from_high_reference": -0.028483, "from_low_reference": 0.053596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.493822, "fair_value_reference": 37.821395, "structural_low": 39.406868, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.003432, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.004065, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.032352, "worst_return": -0.033881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006434, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011616, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.080494, "worst_return": -0.082702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018992, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0733, "worst_return": -0.102364, "sufficient": false 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37.630621, "relative_strength": -14.012388, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.551735, "energy": 1.93841, "activity_lines": [ 40.501983, 40.514333, 40.485906, 40.479231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.669662, "volume": 1112919, "typical_volume": 1238632.1, "trend": 40.512355, "fair_value": 37.678337, "relative_strength": -9.633057, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.212985, "energy": 6.957336, "activity_lines": [ 40.554986, 40.541958, 40.510112, 40.489596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.45, "volume": 1589130, "typical_volume": 1252269.3, "trend": 40.505787, "fair_value": 37.724911, "relative_strength": -8.369994, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.265055, "energy": 5.21905, "activity_lines": [ 40.534128, 40.528731, 40.512162, 40.485573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.49, "volume": 852740, "typical_volume": 1241981.55, "trend": 40.498189, "fair_value": 37.772812, "relative_strength": -8.437081, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.152831, "energy": 5.070976, "activity_lines": [ 40.524682, 40.520643, 40.516941, 40.484554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.73, "volume": 841431, "typical_volume": 1230562.35, "trend": 40.493822, "fair_value": 37.821395, "relative_strength": -12.022772, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.819572, "energy": 21.277197, "activity_lines": [ 40.587989, 40.55621, 40.542323, 40.49951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }