{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4cee7b8-689b-4a93-9ced-584225ac0baa", "symbol": "FINN13", "name": "Fideicomiso Irrevocable db/1616", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.014, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.111, "architecture_energy": 26.119, "architecture_maturity": 56.527, "architecture_confidence": 77.408, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.41, "rotation_up": 25.48, "upward_expansion": 14.86, "deceleration": 46.35, "rotation_down": 33.29, "downward_expansion": 62.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.756, 4.744, 4.821069, 4.873516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.78, "trend_reference": 4.952431, "distance_from_trend": -0.034818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.661767, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.291295, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042509, "excess_performance": 0.012157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027575, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115562, "relative_activity": 0.650193, "balance": 0.735106, "dry_up": 0.360233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033896, "annualized_volatility": 0.130231, "from_high_reference": -0.143559, "from_low_reference": 0.097044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.952431, "fair_value_reference": 4.661767, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.003869, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.016145, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.134796, "worst_return": -0.050505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049987, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.050986, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.675832, "worst_return": -0.053521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047244, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.000946, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.783108, "worst_return": -0.00885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.584068, "energy": 75.713821, "activity_lines": [ 4.691333, 4.780922, 4.879401, 4.936495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.8, "volume": 57482, "typical_volume": 190404.85, "trend": 5.026853, "fair_value": 4.664055, "relative_strength": -3.06739, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.778229, "energy": 60.607238, "activity_lines": [ 4.716, 4.771636, 4.866634, 4.921695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.78, "volume": 23730, "typical_volume": 187100.35, "trend": 5.003364, "fair_value": 4.663245, "relative_strength": -2.918207, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.573859, "energy": 38.781244, "activity_lines": [ 4.744, 4.762364, 4.853017, 4.905769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 59330, "typical_volume": 183126.1, "trend": 4.976564, "fair_value": 4.661813, "relative_strength": -5.101874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.102156, "energy": 36.290031, "activity_lines": [ 4.738667, 4.743273, 4.832698, 4.886197 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.78, "volume": 115562, "typical_volume": 177735.0, "trend": 4.952431, "fair_value": 4.661767, "relative_strength": -3.291295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.110535, "energy": 26.118851, "activity_lines": [ 4.756, 4.744, 4.821069, 4.873516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }