{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4d0641c-8ae4-48f4-9684-1e9c13559c45", "symbol": "CLSC3", "name": "Centrais El\u00e9tricas de Santa Catarina S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.493, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.699, "architecture_energy": 30.163, "architecture_maturity": 29.241, "architecture_confidence": 82.12, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.27, "rotation_up": 52.9, "upward_expansion": 68.98, "deceleration": 53.9, "rotation_down": 20.22, "downward_expansion": 9.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.107524, 126.982868, 126.983284, 126.80023 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 127.82, "trend_reference": 125.970585, "distance_from_trend": 0.014681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.464988, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.608507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.955993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007397, "excess_performance": 0.064445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014681, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059532, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.608507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08956, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055496, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007397, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.3, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600, "relative_activity": 0.902256, "balance": 3.3, "dry_up": 0.902256, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007945, "annualized_volatility": 0.156328, "from_high_reference": -0.044084, "from_low_reference": 0.462496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.970585, "fair_value_reference": 79.464988, "structural_low": 121.035156, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.039647, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.029758, "regime_survival": 0.388889, "best_return": 0.353714, "worst_return": -0.058108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.074769, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.072755, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.226909, "worst_return": -0.035714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.195892, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.134779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.327757, "worst_return": -0.044227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"2026-06-12", "close": 126.139938, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 590.0, "trend": 121.024465, "fair_value": 75.226064, "relative_strength": 10.20289, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.4784, "energy": 13.790092, "activity_lines": [ 126.026091, 126.740634, 126.821079, 125.035765 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 126.139938, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 570.0, "trend": 121.909243, "fair_value": 75.768008, "relative_strength": 11.424371, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.936509, "energy": 13.333714, "activity_lines": [ 126.095952, 126.432269, 126.803469, 125.365795 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 126.139938, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 570.0, "trend": 122.507682, "fair_value": 76.289163, "relative_strength": 8.054717, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.635761, "energy": 13.536894, "activity_lines": [ 126.132823, 126.171582, 126.74756, 125.638743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 128.997006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 545.0, "trend": 123.35522, "fair_value": 76.832454, "relative_strength": 9.446072, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.41567, "energy": 33.910975, "activity_lines": [ 127.08906, 126.568084, 126.967285, 126.057409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 126.327553, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 575.0, "trend": 124.239549, "fair_value": 77.353658, "relative_strength": 4.869172, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.339922, "energy": 24.354033, "activity_lines": [ 126.964361, 126.565005, 126.927349, 126.249173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 126.049686, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 585.0, "trend": 124.612313, "fair_value": 77.87308, "relative_strength": 6.989736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.272627, "energy": 21.778948, "activity_lines": [ 126.731298, 126.538754, 126.868236, 126.365956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 127.012277, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 650.0, "trend": 125.017164, "fair_value": 78.398673, "relative_strength": 7.438537, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.991313, "energy": 24.337734, "activity_lines": [ 126.825116, 126.662697, 126.909406, 126.520792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.012277, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 655.0, "trend": 125.483828, "fair_value": 78.929242, "relative_strength": 5.071492, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.532541, "energy": 17.12056, "activity_lines": [ 126.860778, 126.761782, 126.922113, 126.649509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.82, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 665.0, "trend": 125.970585, "fair_value": 79.464988, "relative_strength": 8.955993, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.699271, "energy": 30.162623, "activity_lines": [ 127.107524, 126.982868, 126.983284, 126.80023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }