{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4d2c296-6faf-4dd7-b28d-fff54e391536", "symbol": "DXEM", "name": "Dynamic Active Emerging Markets ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.452, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.466, "architecture_energy": 29.521, "architecture_maturity": 62.321, "architecture_confidence": 83.637, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.69, "rotation_up": 29.91, "upward_expansion": 60.87, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.73, "downward_expansion": 22.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.701333, 17.780909, 17.470572, 17.072086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.76, "trend_reference": 16.6525, "distance_from_trend": 0.066507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.052917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263795, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.821846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097651, "excess_performance": -0.02277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066507, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047953, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030374, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097651, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.711111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.711111, "dry_up": 1.62234, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03021, "annualized_volatility": 0.214928, "from_high_reference": -0.034258, "from_low_reference": 0.250704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.6525, "fair_value_reference": 14.052917, "structural_low": 14.56, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005263, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007021, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.064026, "worst_return": -0.04533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001297, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.055305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213861, "worst_return": -0.117368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054627, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.051646, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.102464, "worst_return": -0.102442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.005315, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.141319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112164, "worst_return": -0.122795, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.108262, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049287, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050562, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017162, "active": false 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16.656075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.27, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 1000.0, "trend": 16.3685, "fair_value": 13.951763, "relative_strength": 3.616322, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.876711, "energy": 89.710829, "activity_lines": [ 18.116, 17.804364, 17.136762, 16.785247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.24, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 1115.0, "trend": 16.434833, "fair_value": 13.97734, "relative_strength": -1.963006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.872684, "energy": 58.702074, "activity_lines": [ 17.848667, 17.747, 17.196833, 16.841473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.43, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 945.0, "trend": 16.507833, "fair_value": 13.999968, "relative_strength": -1.05237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.275759, "energy": 42.876756, "activity_lines": [ 17.661334, 17.718, 17.272667, 16.905677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.92, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 1030.0, "trend": 16.592833, "fair_value": 14.025929, "relative_strength": 2.207159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.05562, "energy": 38.908624, "activity_lines": [ 17.701333, 17.772455, 17.385691, 16.996785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.76, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 940.0, "trend": 16.6525, "fair_value": 14.052917, "relative_strength": -1.821846, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.466018, "energy": 29.520937, "activity_lines": [ 17.701333, 17.780909, 17.470572, 17.072086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }