{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4d313cf-20ea-4799-8c5b-72c3e0db1a9f", "symbol": "XNID", "name": "Xtrackers Nifty 50 Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.923, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.365, "architecture_energy": 5.51, "architecture_maturity": 16.266, "architecture_confidence": 72.025, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.52, "rotation_up": 29.0, "upward_expansion": 31.95, "deceleration": 43.54, "rotation_down": 20.9, "downward_expansion": 42.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 242.833335, 242.188637, 241.055834, 242.376076 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 246.925003, "trend_reference": 246.8775, "distance_from_trend": 0.000192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 260.901238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053569, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.375115, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093936, "excess_performance": -0.145172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047877, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009489, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.124946, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62, "relative_activity": 0.07298, "balance": 1.124946, "dry_up": 0.326644, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022017, "annualized_volatility": 0.191946, "from_high_reference": -0.140383, "from_low_reference": 0.09574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 246.8775, "fair_value_reference": 260.901238, "structural_low": 225.350006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003239, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023864, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.036521, "worst_return": -0.032157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.039043, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.106747, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.029444, "worst_return": -0.055807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.047577, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.147996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.002483, "worst_return": -0.092672, "sufficient": false }, 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"fair_value": 260.597391, "relative_strength": -12.648942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.88484, "energy": 21.884493, "activity_lines": [ 242.558332, 240.235, 240.363572, 244.35 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 241.649994, "volume": 111, "typical_volume": 1009.8, "trend": 250.411666, "fair_value": 260.651879, "relative_strength": -13.248306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.219113, "energy": 15.808257, "activity_lines": [ 242.48833, 240.669999, 240.386666, 243.704193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 236.425003, "volume": 550, "typical_volume": 975.8, "trend": 248.993333, "fair_value": 260.6805, "relative_strength": -15.698697, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.738854, "energy": 20.507897, "activity_lines": [ 240.381665, 240.18409, 240.019524, 242.801828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 243.225006, "volume": 387, "typical_volume": 931.9, "trend": 247.755833, "fair_value": 260.770533, "relative_strength": -13.854378, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.347579, "energy": 12.045268, "activity_lines": [ 240.991668, 240.91091, 240.372381, 242.429678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 246.925003, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 849.55, "trend": 246.8775, "fair_value": 260.901238, "relative_strength": -12.375115, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.364967, "energy": 5.509556, "activity_lines": [ 242.833335, 242.188637, 241.055834, 242.376076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }