{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4d66ad9-d327-409a-aed5-21206f2392f2", "symbol": "QQU", "name": "BetaPro NASDAQ-100 2x Daily Bull ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.08, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.204, "architecture_energy": 22.384, "architecture_maturity": 73.144, "architecture_confidence": 93.814, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.62, "rotation_up": 26.17, "upward_expansion": 50.91, "deceleration": 82.23, "rotation_down": 37.0, "downward_expansion": 28.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.856, 37.559091, 37.619952, 35.85443 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.84, "trend_reference": 33.721, "distance_from_trend": 0.151805, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.125897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.609888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.541556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.321088, "excess_performance": 0.200667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151805, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082976, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.609888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149701, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085416, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.321088, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.850549, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2246200, "relative_activity": 0.975599, "balance": 1.850549, "dry_up": 1.178487, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076547, "annualized_volatility": 0.421891, "from_high_reference": -0.075898, "from_low_reference": 0.612957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.721, "fair_value_reference": 24.125897, "structural_low": 24.08, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001349, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001397, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.215732, "worst_return": -0.215743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.091961, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.059232, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.265869, "worst_return": -0.312322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.277836, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.137476, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.374638, "worst_return": -0.108155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.245622, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028883, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.572464, "worst_return": -0.511857, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052141, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.232615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039104, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055573, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041349, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.378542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109714, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.39, "volume": 3297500, "typical_volume": 2572745.0, "trend": 12.086333, "fair_value": 13.484017, "relative_strength": 24.935908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.377502, 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39.277273, 36.505238, 34.594817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.580002, "volume": 3110300, "typical_volume": 2408430.0, "trend": 32.965333, "fair_value": 23.570641, "relative_strength": 14.48467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.714037, "energy": 45.193186, "activity_lines": [ 39.326001, 39.397818, 37.053476, 35.041871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.25, "volume": 2732500, "typical_volume": 2449470.0, "trend": 33.160667, "fair_value": 23.707756, "relative_strength": 4.840269, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.502224, "energy": 29.600804, "activity_lines": [ 38.253334, 38.83, 37.234905, 35.253785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.0, "volume": 2052700, "typical_volume": 2292710.0, "trend": 33.289667, "fair_value": 23.833013, "relative_strength": 0.889636, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.995258, "energy": 21.905127, "activity_lines": [ 36.982667, 38.082546, 37.262905, 35.372452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.389999, "volume": 3821900, "typical_volume": 2322260.0, "trend": 33.469667, "fair_value": 23.966859, "relative_strength": 2.305757, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.872888, "energy": 21.946114, "activity_lines": [ 36.260667, 37.470364, 37.295762, 35.507957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.84, "volume": 2246200, "typical_volume": 2302380.0, "trend": 33.721, "fair_value": 24.125897, "relative_strength": 8.541556, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.204452, "energy": 22.384118, "activity_lines": [ 36.856, 37.559091, 37.619952, 35.85443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }