{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4d71a0c-63c7-4ffa-b8df-6e30e3be92ff", "symbol": "VH2", "name": "Friedrich Vorwerk Group SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.555, "architecture_energy": 23.278, "architecture_maturity": 55.217, "architecture_confidence": 81.135, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.03, "rotation_up": 24.99, "upward_expansion": 8.67, "deceleration": 53.24, "rotation_down": 40.07, "downward_expansion": 68.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.993333, 67.112727, 67.601534, 69.476954 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 68.599998, "trend_reference": 72.892775, "distance_from_trend": -0.058892, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.17323, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.552977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.97795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.154227, "excess_performance": -0.218866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058892, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.552977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182133, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154227, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.796232, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147967, "relative_activity": 0.659476, "balance": 0.796232, "dry_up": 0.983008, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107697, "annualized_volatility": 0.599658, "from_high_reference": -0.361023, "from_low_reference": 0.220641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.892775, "fair_value_reference": 44.17323, "structural_low": 56.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.005674, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.010026, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.34696, "worst_return": -0.177043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057739, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.001672, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.218232, "worst_return": -0.049557, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.092756, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.23006, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.272499, "worst_return": -0.458011, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 60.849998, "volume": 192222, "typical_volume": 241414.5, "trend": 74.278451, "fair_value": 43.057203, "relative_strength": -23.12912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.259038, "energy": 32.560598, "activity_lines": [ 65.809998, 65.811914, 67.91712, 70.545598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.900002, "volume": 311873, "typical_volume": 240645.85, "trend": 73.987301, "fair_value": 43.445949, "relative_strength": -11.027476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.714035, "energy": 20.094097, "activity_lines": [ 66.973333, 66.740423, 68.005842, 70.327634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.6, "volume": 230170, "typical_volume": 240564.35, "trend": 73.398231, "fair_value": 43.798729, "relative_strength": -18.86575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.232023, "energy": 28.224767, "activity_lines": [ 66.32, 66.635301, 67.637481, 69.786517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.599998, "volume": 147967, "typical_volume": 224370.45, "trend": 72.892775, "fair_value": 44.17323, "relative_strength": -16.97795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.555321, "energy": 23.277741, "activity_lines": [ 66.993333, 67.112727, 67.601534, 69.476954 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }