{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4d8729d-ca0f-403e-8e3d-c9f754da0ca0", "symbol": "SIBN", "name": "Si-Bone Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 57.859, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.147, "architecture_energy": 59.695, "architecture_maturity": 20.163, "architecture_confidence": 82.969, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.4, "rotation_up": 66.26, "upward_expansion": 85.95, "deceleration": 49.76, "rotation_down": 17.39, "downward_expansion": 10.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.751333, 17.350364, 16.163476, 15.530086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.61, "trend_reference": 15.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.227033, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.311218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140933, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.795735, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.193714, "excess_performance": 0.00626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.227033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0474, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.423961, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017957, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.396907, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.193714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.129427, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3416095, "relative_activity": 1.094175, "balance": 3.129427, "dry_up": 0.846127, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085597, "annualized_volatility": 0.41459, "from_high_reference": -0.14984, "from_low_reference": 0.62108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.166667, "fair_value_reference": 16.311218, "structural_low": 11.48, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.076014, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.074245, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.181613, "worst_return": -0.178251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.10827, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.232702, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.473201, "worst_return": -0.396365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.081278, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079632, "worst_return": -0.148821, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016552, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.258877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047276, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174853, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173773, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.41, "volume": 2022781, "typical_volume": 2086257.55, "trend": 22.432, "fair_value": 22.31641, "relative_strength": -3.292991, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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3122915.55, "trend": 15.295333, "fair_value": 16.368718, "relative_strength": -4.468367, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.861085, "energy": 51.352688, "activity_lines": [ 17.123333, 16.654, 15.50781, 15.15286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.76, "volume": 2767399, "typical_volume": 3134230.3, "trend": 15.227667, "fair_value": 16.329936, "relative_strength": 1.965872, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.277242, "energy": 58.311745, "activity_lines": [ 17.31, 16.952909, 15.806381, 15.311871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.61, "volume": 3416095, "typical_volume": 3122074.1, "trend": 15.166667, "fair_value": 16.311218, "relative_strength": 1.795735, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.146673, "energy": 59.694947, "activity_lines": [ 17.751333, 17.350364, 16.163476, 15.530086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }