{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4dfcc94-58f5-4b6b-aea1-1cf48f90b8ab", "symbol": "FIGS", "name": "Figs Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.985, "architecture_energy": 13.744, "architecture_maturity": 47.671, "architecture_confidence": 63.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.86, "rotation_up": 28.97, "upward_expansion": 16.74, "deceleration": 42.11, "rotation_down": 29.51, "downward_expansion": 66.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.552667, 11.208364, 11.782381, 12.33643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.26, "trend_reference": 12.617667, "distance_from_trend": 0.130161, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.431538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.918849, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.736898, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.327747, "excess_performance": 0.202122, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130161, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.918849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.286847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.157369, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057365, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.327747, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.889686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27204854, "relative_activity": 1.717204, "balance": 2.889686, "dry_up": 1.094407, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110499, "annualized_volatility": 0.855594, "from_high_reference": -0.184211, "from_low_reference": 1.328163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.617667, "fair_value_reference": 7.431538, "structural_low": 9.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.04729, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.018501, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.354023, "worst_return": -0.21102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.091115, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.050123, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.353635, "worst_return": -0.214537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.432432, "worst_return": -0.078493, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 54.834943, "activity_lines": [ 10.769333, 11.276727, 12.464524, 12.700602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.31, "volume": 14582482, "typical_volume": 15993424.6, "trend": 12.635, "fair_value": 7.345449, "relative_strength": -11.311746, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.173798, "energy": 70.664925, "activity_lines": [ 10.479333, 11.051818, 12.169952, 12.546667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.51, "volume": 11452306, "typical_volume": 15376141.3, "trend": 12.558333, "fair_value": 7.360385, "relative_strength": -17.962079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.269131, "energy": 78.461762, "activity_lines": [ 10.032667, 10.705455, 11.823667, 12.345054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.7, "volume": 16113085, "typical_volume": 15317378.15, "trend": 12.535333, "fair_value": 7.38359, "relative_strength": -9.167784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.145292, "energy": 67.883225, "activity_lines": [ 10.169333, 10.616545, 11.623619, 12.225161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.26, "volume": 27204854, "typical_volume": 15842533.1, "trend": 12.617667, "fair_value": 7.431538, "relative_strength": 15.736898, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.985285, "energy": 13.74357, "activity_lines": [ 11.552667, 11.208364, 11.782381, 12.33643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }