{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d4e33d40-8813-4efa-b056-91a523a08332", "symbol": "NPS", "name": "CANADIAN LARGE CAP LEADERS SPLI", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 69.268, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.376, "architecture_energy": 35.276, "architecture_maturity": 36.898, "architecture_confidence": 57.912, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.09, "rotation_up": 19.44, "upward_expansion": 26.01, "deceleration": 67.24, "rotation_down": 64.61, "downward_expansion": 37.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.072991, 14.595238, 14.748438, 14.626672 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.8, "trend_reference": 14.318762, "distance_from_trend": -0.03623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.865133, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.996016, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018641, "excess_performance": -0.10178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03623, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098004, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198947, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018641, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.504899, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39000, "relative_activity": 1.000929, "balance": 0.504899, "dry_up": 1.263198, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055169, "annualized_volatility": 0.209896, "from_high_reference": -0.141113, "from_low_reference": 0.519406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.318762, "fair_value_reference": 9.865133, "structural_low": 12.273628, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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14.864768, 14.595809, 14.140596 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 15.245963, "volume": 27100, "typical_volume": 28768.0, "trend": 13.499989, "fair_value": 9.585262, "relative_strength": 15.744504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.696799, "energy": 82.240967, "activity_lines": [ 15.097286, 14.950222, 14.684944, 14.263175 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.206796, "volume": 24800, "typical_volume": 28505.0, "trend": 13.654374, "fair_value": 9.630966, "relative_strength": 14.884884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.122226, "energy": 69.268123, "activity_lines": [ 15.154573, 15.014585, 14.758079, 14.373291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.760787, "volume": 37500, "typical_volume": 28025.0, "trend": 13.823874, "fair_value": 9.6804, "relative_strength": 17.514779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.911787, "energy": 69.82934, "activity_lines": [ 15.365348, 15.170954, 14.876073, 14.509189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.454272, "volume": 98400, "typical_volume": 32455.0, "trend": 13.977999, "fair_value": 9.726591, "relative_strength": 14.45662, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.407959, "energy": 61.667764, "activity_lines": [ 15.430491, 15.250358, 14.955232, 14.614376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.444385, "volume": 46200, "typical_volume": 34335.0, "trend": 14.118901, "fair_value": 9.77197, "relative_strength": 13.921167, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.435655, "energy": 59.600724, "activity_lines": [ 15.465395, 15.314962, 15.026609, 14.708981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.383942, "volume": 52125, "typical_volume": 35701.25, "trend": 14.221876, "fair_value": 9.808285, "relative_strength": 5.417754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.340412, "energy": 30.685263, "activity_lines": [ 15.119229, 15.172702, 14.99128, 14.726081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.15, "volume": 59551, "typical_volume": 38033.8, "trend": 14.268962, "fair_value": 9.834392, "relative_strength": -3.330638, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.098027, "energy": 23.5415, "activity_lines": [ 14.419217, 14.810432, 14.836277, 14.656927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.8, "volume": 39000, "typical_volume": 38963.8, "trend": 14.318762, "fair_value": 9.865133, "relative_strength": -1.996016, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.375904, "energy": 35.276285, "activity_lines": [ 14.072991, 14.595238, 14.748438, 14.626672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }